041 
FXUS62 KJAX 020130
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
930 PM EDT Tue Jun 1 2021

.UPDATE...

Sfc analysis shows low level trough just east of the offshore
coastal waters and high pressure ridge well to our northeast. This
results in east to northeast flow over the area. Models continue 
to suggest the low level trough will pivot westward through 
Wednesday, with low level flow over the land zones starting out light
northeast tonight and then becoming east to southeast on 
Wednesday. IR imagery shows the trough offshore and just now 
beginning to see a couple of stray showers impinging on the 
offshore waters as the trough works west. Did not make much change
in the rain chance forecast with showers eventually making it to 
the coast around sunrise. Also, kept a mention of patchy to areas 
of fog for inland southeast GA and parts of the Suwannee Valley 
area. Can't rule out a few places with dense fog from about 
Hamilton county northward to Coffee and Ware counties. Scattered 
showers and a few storms expected on Wednesday and little change 
made to the POPs. 

.MARINE...

Current forecast was on track with sfc winds turning from east-
northeast to east and then southeast late tonight and on 
Wednesday. Chance of showers and t-storms will increase over
waters through midday Wednesday. Seas generally of 3-4 ft

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [805 PM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Tonight through Wednesday]...
East to northeast flow will become more southeasterly on Wednesday
as high pressure off the east coast moves further east. This will
bring a big increase in moisture which should result in increasing
shower activity over the coastal waters tonight and over coastal 
counties late tonight and Wednesday morning. Patchy inland fog is
possible late tonight and early Wednesday morning with low 
temperatures in the low/mid 60s inland and near 70 coast. Ridging 
aloft will weaken over the area on Wednesday as an upper trough 
approaches from the southern Plains. Expect scattered showers and 
isolated thunderstorms to develop inland during the afternoon as 
moisture/instability increase and the east coast seabreeze moves 
well inland.


.SHORT TERM [Wednesday night through Friday Night]...
Deep moisture becoming established over the area combined with 
slight cooling aloft will help to produce numerous showers and 
thunderstorms. Much needed rainfall is expected especially over 
inland zones where the seabreezes will merge during the last
afternoon and early evening.


.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Tuesday]...
Daily diurnal convection will continue as abundant moisture 
remains over the area with PWATs near 2 inches. Weak impulses in 
the sw flow aloft may enhance seabreeze convection at times with 
scattered to numerous storms expected each day. Areas of locally 
heavy rainfall may occur. Temperatures will be near average levels
along with humid conditions.


.AVIATION...
[Through 00Z Thursday]

Some occasional MVFR cigs this evening close to 1500 ft at SGJ 
and SSI but may see a slight improvement of these clouds by 
midnight, otherwise mainly few to scattered low clouds. However, 
continuation of onshore flow and increased moisture will lead to 
developing cumulus and a threat of coastal showers after 06Z 
tonight. Some low cloud and fog potential expected inland for VQQ 
and GNV with mainly MVFR indicated at this time. Highest potential
for low stratus and fog, possibly locally dense fog at times, 
will be inland southeast GA per model guidance. As the deeper 
moisture moves in Wednesday, expect rain chances to increase in 
conjunction with daytime heating. Some MVFR ceilings will be
possible 12Z-16Z. Have kept VCSH for the morning hours and also 
added a PROB30 group for TSRA in the aftn. Winds will be easterly
5-10 kt this evening and then becoming light to variable at most 
sites. Winds become southeast to south about 8-12 kt after 14Z
Wednesday.


.MARINE...
Surface high pressure just off the east coast will shift eastward
over the western Atlantic through the week. Moisture will increase
resulting in an increased chance for showers and thunderstorms 
over the waters through the weekend. Winds and seas expected to 
remain below headline criteria.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk will continue with onshore winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  62  88  68  88  68 /   0  20  20  60  20 
SSI  70  84  73  85  73 /  20  20  20  30  30 
JAX  67  87  70  88  70 /  20  40  20  40  20 
SGJ  69  85  71  85  71 /  20  30  20  40  20 
GNV  64  90  67  89  67 /  10  50  20  60  20 
OCF  66  91  69  90  69 /  10  50  30  60  20 

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&