114 
FXUS64 KTSA 301833
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
133 PM CDT Sun May 30 2021

.DISCUSSION...

Heavy rain/flood potential over the next couple days is the main 
concern in this forecast.

The initial wave of precip, with isolated thunder, is advancing
east across KS/northern OK early this afternoon on the nose of mid
level isentropic lift. This activity is forecast by the CAMs to
gradually fade as it heads east. Will leave some low PoPs to the
north and west of Tulsa for the evening. Focus shifts back west
with storms on the High Plains eventually growing into a large MCS
overnight. The remnants of this MCS will track into our area
Monday. As we head into Monday night, models suggest that low
pressure aloft will slide into the region, probably convectively 
enhanced by the previous night's MCS, and could bring swaths of 
locally heavy rainfall. The 12Z HRRR/NAM and 00Z EC all suggest 
this could occur across northeast OK and possibly into northwest 
AR while the GFS says southeast OK. Either way, deep layer 
moisture will be on the increase by this time, with PWATs 1.5 to 
1.75 inches. While this is not the caliber of moisture we saw 
late last week, heavy rain rates are still possible. Given some 
uncertainty with location of heavier rainfall and that we're still
more than 24 hours out, will hold off on any flood headlines and 
let future shifts reevaluate.

Rain/storm chances decrease by the middle to latter part of the
week as the upper trough/low pressure slide east of the region.
Another weak low pressure could bring back better rain/storm
chances by next weekend.

Below average cool weather will continue into the early part of
next week, though humidity is increasing. More sun mid to late 
week will lead to warmer, and more typical, early June temps.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   58  70  62  73 /  10  80  80  70 
FSM   55  77  63  74 /   0  20  70  90 
MLC   57  73  63  75 /   0  40  90  80 
BVO   56  68  60  71 /  20  80  80  60 
FYV   50  73  58  71 /   0  20  80  80 
BYV   50  73  58  70 /   0  20  70  80 
MKO   55  72  61  72 /   0  60  80  80 
MIO   55  72  60  70 /  10  60  80  80 
F10   57  71  63  73 /  10  70  90  70 
HHW   58  77  64  76 /   0  20  70  80 

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30