826 
FXUS62 KJAX 140523
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
123 AM EDT Fri May 14 2021

.AVIATION...
[Through 06Z Saturday]

Restrictions in inland fog into this morning, affecting KVQQ and 
KGNV, otherwise VFR conditions anticipated. Winds will remain 
elevated and gusty near the coast, with winds picking back up 
including inland after sunrise. 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [944 PM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

An upper level trough over extends from the Great lakes to the 
Big Bend with a surface cold front extending from the Gulf of 
Mexico, across central Florida and into the Atlantic. The front is
proving to be the focusing mechanism for today's rain with the 
upper trough driving the rain shield eastward. Now with the 
trough axis approaching the region the cloud shield is beginning 
to be driven southward toward the central Florida peninsula. This
trend should continue overnight with the rain moving south and
offshore. Some light fog is possible in inland areas that saw 
more significant rainfall today, but overall a drying trend
tonight.


.SHORT TERM [Friday Through Saturday Night]...

Eastern CONUS trough will shift off of the seaboard late Friday as
high pressure and drier air spill southward into the region this 
weekend. As a result, west-northwesterly flow aloft will prevail 
over the southeastern states. A gradual warming trend will occur 
as heights rise aloft and low-level thicknesses increase. High 
temps will be in the mid 70s coast to lower 80s well inland 
Saturday, then upper 70s coast to mid 80s well inland on Sunday. 
Sprawled surface ridge centered over the Ohio and Tennessee 
Valleys will continue to wedge down the southeastern seaboard 
through Saturday, keeping a tight pressure gradient in place. 
Windy conditions will continue at coastal locations through 
Saturday period, with prevailing wind speeds remaining in the 
20-25 mph range with frequent gusts of 30-35 mph. Fair skies will 
prevail inland. Winds will decouple after sunset at inland 
locations on Friday and Saturday nights, allowing lows to fall to 
the lower 50s throughout inland southeast GA and the northern 
Suwannee Valley. Windy conditions at the coast will keep lows in 
the low to mid 60s. The center of the expansive surface ridge will
shift off the Mid-Atlantic coast on Sunday, allowing low level 
flow to veer easterly.


.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Thursday]...

Flow aloft will be zonal across the southeastern states through 
Tuesday, with ridging aloft beginning to build over our area 
towards midweek as closed troughing over the Desert Southwest 
emerges over the Southern Plains. Breezy easterly winds will 
continue at coastal locations throughout the period as surface 
ridging strengthens near Bermuda, keeping a rather tight local 
pressure gradient in place. Low level moisture may increase enough
for a priming of the lower atmosphere Tuesday with recovering 
moisture levels with model blends indicating isolated to widely 
scattered POPs Wednesday and Thursday. An isolated afternoon 
thunderstorm cannot be ruled out along the inland-moving Atlantic 
sea breeze by Wednesday afternoon. 

Highs will climb to the mid to upper 80s along the I-75 corridor  
on Monday and will continue to climb by a degree or two each day, 
reaching the lower 90s by midweek. A fairly dry air mass will 
remain in place through at least Monday, with lows moderating to 
the low and mid 60s by midweek with some coastal areas having 
minimums warming to near 70 towards midweek time-frame.


.MARINE...

The pressure gradient between high pressure over the Great Lakes 
States and Mid-Atlantic and lower pressure over The Bahamas will
maintain Small Craft Advisory conditions across our coastal 
waters through Saturday morning. Winds will begin to relax on 
Friday but seas will take some time to subside. As we move into 
Saturday the ridge will be positioned a bit further south with 
the strongest northeast flow more oriented toward south and 
central Florida. Conditions will be significantly better on Sunday
and Monday with the high centered near Cape Hatteras-Virginia 
Beach. The next cold front will move through on Wednesday with 
Small Craft Advisory conditions returning to the waters. 


Rip Currents: High rip current risk today through Friday as strong
northeast winds continue producing rough surf with breakers up to
6 feet.


.FIRE WEATHER...

A drier air mass is beginning to filter into the northern areas and
will continue to drop south through Friday. On Friday and into 
Saturday inland areas will see gusty northeasterly transport
winds which will generate significant dispersion values at inland
locations on both afternoons. Minimum relative humidity values 
are still expected to drop to critical/near critical values on 
Saturday afternoon across inland areas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  77  52  79  53  82 /   0   0   0   0   0 
SSI  73  63  77  65  80 /   0   0   0   0   0 
JAX  76  58  78  62  80 /   0   0   0   0   0 
SGJ  76  65  77  65  79 /  20   0   0   0   0 
GNV  80  57  81  58  83 /   0   0   0   0   0 
OCF  82  61  84  60  85 /   0   0   0   0   0 

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for Coastal Duval-
     Coastal Flagler-Coastal Nassau-Coastal St. Johns.

GA...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for Coastal Camden-
     Coastal Glynn.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for Coastal waters 
     from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL 
     out 20 NM-Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler 
     Beach FL out 20 NM-Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to 
     Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Fernandina 
     Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from St. 
     Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&