956 
FXUS64 KLUB 100532
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1232 AM CDT Mon May 10 2021

.AVIATION...
MVFR Cigs (possibly IFR) are expected to form between 08z and 12z
due to continue easterly upslope flow. The lower ceilings should
gradually lift to VFR and break up during the afternoon, but then
reform and have a downward trend Monday night due to continued 
easterly low level flow.

&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 240 PM CDT Sun May 9 2021/ 

SHORT TERM...
Mid level flow across West Texas is expected to remain quasi-zonal 
through Monday evening.  A minor ripple in the mean flow is forecast 
to move through the Panhandle this evening and serve as a lifting 
mechanism which should trigger some shower and thunderstorm 
activity.  This feature is confirmed in WV imagery (at mid-day) as 
evidenced by altocumulus congestus over the Sangre de Cristo range 
of NRN NM.  Some of the leading effects, closer to the surface, 
include the initiation of a low level Cu field across the western 
Panhandle.  It should take quite a while before deep convection 
initializes west of the state line, but by dinner time, storms 
should be crossing into Texas.  The question then becomes the 
southern extent of the thunderstorm activity.  From available data, 
it would appear that portions of the Panhandle, from Parmer to 
Briscoe county, will have the best shot of seeing thunderstorms.  To 
the south, chances diminish rapidly.

Southeasterly, upslope winds will help to provide lift down low 
while the passing disturbance destabilizes the mid-levels with lapse 
rates of 7-9 degC/km.  Initially, storms will likely remain anemic 
with a bone-dry sub-cloud layer and very thin CAPE.  Still, as the 
storms become better established, some updraft strengthening should 
occur and it seems reasonable that marginally severe hail could be 
produced along with a greater threat for downburst winds.  

After storms dissipate this evening, with the continued warm/moist 
advection, stratus should rapidly move into the area after midnight. 
It appears enough lift will be present to generate some light shower 
(or more likely sprinkles) activity for the first few hours after 
sunrise on Monday morning.  Skies should start to clear from west to 
east though it is surmised that the Rolling Plains could hold onto 
the clouds all day as the effects of the next disturbance begin to 
pull moisture westward late tomorrow.
LONG TERM...
An upper-level trough will move into the Intermountain West late 
Monday and a few disturbances will move through the area. As these 
waves move through, they will bring light precipitation and the 
potential for elevated thunderstorms, especially over the 
southeastern CWA. Precipitation chances will begin to come to an end 
Wednesday as the axis of the main trough moves to the east. An upper 
ridge will begin to build into the area late Wednesday. This will 
bring a warming trend going into the latter part of the week. As the 
upper ridge continues to move to the east, it is expected to 
flatten. A few embedded disturbances may form within the mean flow 
and bring the potential of showers and thunderstorms going into the 
weekend. However, these ripples are not as pronounced as previous 
runs.
Gkendrick

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/04