718 
FNUS73 KTOP 051254
FWSTOP

Spot Forecast for 3 Corners...USFWS
National Weather Service Topeka KS
754 AM CDT Wed May 5 2021

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0600 CDT on May 06. 
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (800) 432-3929, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

Periods of light rain showers are forecast for the end of the 
week, mainly early Thursday morning and again on Friday morning. 
However, amounts look to be light and not amount to a wetting 
rain. Daytime RH values look to fall to around 30 percent on 
Thursday and 40 percent on Friday, with southwest winds very 
early Thursday switching to the northwest around sunrise and 
increasing to 10 to 15 mph with gusts of 20-25 mph for the 
remainder of the afternoon. Winds look to switch back to the south
by the morning on Friday.

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent). Chance of 
                    sprinkles early in the morning. 
Chance of pcpn......10 percent. 
Max temperature.....Around 69. 
Min humidity........31 percent. 
Wind (20 ft)........North to northwest winds 5 to 12 mph 
                    with gusts around 20 mph. 
Mixing height.......500-1800 ft AGL increasing to 4700-5000 
                    ft AGL. 
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to good (4800-54500 knot-ft) 
                    increasing to excellent (62400 knot-ft) in 
                    the afternoon. 
Haines Index........3 to 5 OR very low potential for large plume 
                    dominated fire growth to moderate potential 
                    for large plume dominated fire growth. 

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 
Sky (%).........46  50  38  26  15  15  15  15  11  8   5   4   
Weather cov.....CHC                                             
Weather type....RW                                              
Tstm cov........                                                
Chc of pcpn (%).10  10  10  10  10  10  10  0   0   0   0   0   
Temp............47  48  50  53  56  59  62  64  66  67  69  69  
RH..............86  86  83  71  64  57  50  45  40  36  32  31  
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   
20 FT wind spd..5   6   8   10  11  11  12  12  12  11  10  9   
20 FT wind gust.        10  13  17  16  17  17  18  16  14  12  
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.6 1.4 1.8 2.5 3.0 3.5 3.9 4.4 4.7 5.0 4.7 
Haines index....5   5   5   4   4   4   5   5   4   4   3   3   
SDspl kt-ft/10005   6   22  28  44  55  62  71  83  86  84  75  

.THURSDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (0-10 percent). 
Chance of pcpn......0 percent. 
Min temperature.....Around 44. 
Max humidity........73 percent. 
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 5 to 8 mph early in the evening 
                    becoming light. 
Mixing height.......3000-4400 ft AGL decreasing to 400-1800 ft AGL 
                    in the late evening and overnight. 
Smoke dispersal.....Good to excellent (31500-64900 knot-ft) 
                    decreasing to poor to fair (2100-14200 knot-ft) 
                    in the late evening and overnight. 
Haines Index........4 to 5 OR low potential for large plume 
                    dominated fire growth to moderate potential for 
                    large plume dominated fire growth. 

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM   
Sky (%).........4      4      2      3      4      8      
Weather cov.....                                          
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   
Tstm cov........                                          
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0      
Temp............68     61     53     48     46     45     
RH..............31     39     52     63     68     68     
20 ft wind......N 8    N 4    N 2    E 1    SE 1   S 2    
20 ft wind gust.10     10     6      6      6      6      
Mix hgt (ft)....4400   3000   600    500    400    400    
Haines index....4      4      4      5      5      5      
SDspl kt-ft/100065     32     3      2      2      2      

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent) then becoming 
                    partly sunny (60-70 percent). Slight chance of 
                    rain showers. 
Chance of pcpn......20 percent. 
Max temperature.....Around 68. 
Min humidity........45 percent. 
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southeast 5 to 7 mph with 
                    gusts to around 16 mph in the late morning and 
                    afternoon. 
Mixing height.......400-1100 ft AGL. 
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (3100-15200 knot-ft). 
Haines Index........3 to 4 OR very low potential for large plume 
                    dominated fire growth to low potential for 
                    large plume dominated fire growth. 

TIME (CDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM      
Sky (%).........21        55        70        65        
Weather cov.....          S CHC     S CHC     S CHC     
Weather type....NONE      RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR    
Tstm cov........                                        
Chc of pcpn (%).0         20        20        20        
Temp............44        53        62        66        
RH..............73        61        50        45        
20 FT wind......S 2G6     S 5G11    S 6G14    S 7G16    
Mix hgt (ft)....400       500       700       1000      
Haines index....4         4         4         3         
SDspl kt-ft/10003         5         6         11        

$$
Forecaster...Skow
Requested by...Tim Menard
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2111647.0/TOP
.DELDT 05/05/21
.EMAIL tim_menard@fws.gov