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561 FXUS63 KOAX 041731 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1231 PM CDT Tue May 4 2021 ...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 4:00 CDT Tue May 4 2021 NOW... As of 4:00am, temps are within a couple of degrees of 48 for most locations across the area. These are the coolest temps of the month so far. Wayne, NE had fallen below 40F last hour under some of the starriest portion of the sky this morning as clouds have continued to build in from the southwest in response to the trof working through Kansas. Radar returns along the state line don't seem to be reaching the ground, but have added some slight PoPs there through 5:00am. TODAY... Skies will clear mid-morning and allow the sunshine to nearly offset the ongoing CAA at 850mb. High temps may fall just a couple of degrees shy of Monday's highs. The day as a whole, however, may be more pleasant with the sunshine and winds less hurried than those of Monday. Tonight's surface high will bring the demise of the northerly winds and allow temps to hit bottom in the 30s for most of the CWA before turning south. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY... Another shortwave embedded in the northwest flow will encourage WAA for the first half of Wednesday and may coax a few showers and or a rumble of thunder out of the increasing clouds Wednesday. Areas north of I-80 are pegged for the best chances. Thursday's highs will be a repeat of the mid-60s from the first half of the week thanks to the cooler northwest flow behind the departing system. FRIDAY, THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND... Friday may be the week's warmest with high temps making a run at 70 under a short-wave *ridge* ahead of a deep upper low approaching from the Pacific Northwest. The overall picture still hasn't fully resolved and is reflected in the NBM's chance/iso POPs from Friday to Tuesday that envelop the entire CWA. With the EC's pattern more amplified, the low out west farther out west and less QPF. Friday night's rain/t-storm chances will be focused along the Kansas state line where a warm front is expected to set up and may produces some elevated storms. Saturday's chances look to be the best of the period with wrap around showers as the surface low passes south of the area. EC's solution keeps those chances around longer with the slower arrival for the upper low. I like the day shift's use of the word "murky" to describe the weekend forecast. Expect the warm air to remain south of the CWA and the seasonally cool temps to linger into early next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 1228 PM CDT Tue May 4 2021 VFR conditions under clear skies are forecast through Tuesday evening. North winds 15 to 25kt should diminish to less than 10kt by or shortly after 00Z. A low pressure system rolling east off the High Plains will promote a return to southerly winds overnight at all sites. Scattered showers are expected Wednesday morning at KOFK and KLNK, and may reach KOMA before 18Z. Generally VFR cigs and brief MVFR vsbys are forecasted within showers. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen AVIATION...Dergan