382 
FXUS63 KTOP 262017
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
317 PM CDT Mon Apr 26 2021

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 PM CDT Mon Apr 26 2021

As of 20Z Monday afternoon, a longwave midlevel trough was advancing 
eastward across the southwest US. A fetch of moisture from the Baja 
region continues to yield an expansive cirrus shield across much of 
the region. At the surface, a deepening lee surface low across 
eastern CO has resulted in a tight pressure gradient across the 
forecast area with southerly winds sustained between 20-30 MPH, 
gusting up to 50 MPH. The strongest winds have remained across 
eastern KS, where the strongest LLJ was present. Temperatures have 
surged into the mid to upper 80s with the warmest across north 
central KS. In addition, a sharpening dryline has mixed to just west 
of US-81. Relative humidity values are now in the mid-20 percent 
range along US-81. The combination of gusty winds and low RH will 
continue to result in very high to extreme fire danger. As boundary 
layer mixing decreases this evening and the aforementioned dry line 
retreats, low level moisture will increase with surface winds 
decreasing slightly. Otherwise, a quiet night is expected with lows 
reaching the low to mid 60s. 

Transitioning into Tuesday, similar conditions are expected when 
compared to today. The western midlevel trough will advance eastward 
with the attendant surface trough approaching north central KS by 
sunset. Dry conditions are expected through the daytime hours as the 
warm sector remains 'capped' with a substantial EML overhead. 
Afternoon temperatures may be a degree or two cooler than today due 
to an increase in midlevel cloudiness. Convective development is 
expected along the dryline in central OK by late afternoon. Shower 
and thunderstorm coverage should increase after 06Z across the 
forecast area as a 100 kt midlevel speed max ejects into the Plains 
along with modest WAA from a 35 kt LLJ. The severe weather potential 
looks quite low with limited instability and modest shear profiles, 
although the strongest updrafts could produce gusty winds and hail. 

Showers and a few thunderstorms may persist through the day 
Wednesday as the aforementioned midlevel speed max phases with a 
northern stream trough and slowly advances eastward. A lack of 
destabilization will likely limit any severe thunderstorm threat 
across the forecast area. Overall rain amounts are likely to vary 
greatly with the northern areas seeing less than 0.10" while areas 
southeast of I-35 could see near 1".

For Thursday and beyond, the forecast looks predominately dry with a 
southwestern US ridge expanding into the Plains into the weekend. In 
addition, temperatures are forecast to return to the 80s Saturday 
and Sunday. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Mon Apr 26 2021

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Southerly
winds will continue to gust over 30 kt through 00Z before
decreasing slightly as the boundary layer inversion develops. LLWS
conditions are expected after 03Z as a 45-55 kt LLJ near 2 kft
overspreads the area. LLWS conditions subside by mid-morning as
the LLJ weakens. 

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for KSZ026-037>040-
054>056-058-059.

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ008-009-020.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Baerg
AVIATION...Baerg