AFOS product AFDABQ
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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDABQ
Product Timestamp: 2021-04-23 21:22 UTC

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FXUS65 KABQ 232122
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
322 PM MDT Fri Apr 23 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Windy conditions will continue through the evening behind a Pacific 
cold front and any showers tapering off. Winds won't be as strong on
Saturday with slightly warmer temperatures than today's readings. 
Sunday should be the warmest day of the week for most locations with 
windy conditions returning ahead of the next storm system. A strong 
cold front will arrive early next week with stronger winds Monday, 
cooler temperatures, and increased precipitation chances through
mid-week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
An upper level trough is crossing NM this afternoon, bringing a 
little bit of rain, including some thunder and lightning, but strong 
wind gusts will be the main issue this evening. It will dry out and 
a little cooler during the night. A back door cold front will move 
south through the eastern plains tonight, but not make it too far 
west. 

The weekend will be very dry, much warmer, and have breezy to windy 
conditions both days. Sunday will be the winner for the more extreme 
conditions. In fact, widespread critical to extreme fire weather 
conditions are likely Sunday. CHJ

LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
As the next Pacific trough and associated cold front begin to 
approach Monday, deep mixing and strengthening southwest flow will
lead to even windier conditions than on Sunday. Thus, winds were
increased accordingly on Monday afternoon. While there's slightly
better model agreement on the trough being placed further to the
south, there's still some differences as far as timing goes. 
Northern and western New Mexico will mainly be favored for increased 
chances for rain, mountain snow, and thunderstorms and strong winds 
on Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures will fall below normal for the
middle portion of the week in the wake of the system. Some warming 
occurs during the latter portion of the work week as a ridge moves in
from the west. Stay tuned for the latest forecast as details are 
likely to change. 31

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...CRITICAL TO EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND 
MONDAY...

An upper level trough is crossing NM this afternoon creating strong 
and gusty winds, but not much precipitation. Showers and storms will 
continue through the early evening, but any wetting rainfall will be 
confined to a small area in northeast NM. 

The weekend and next Monday will develop into a dangerous situation
with increasing critical and extreme fire behavior. Sunday and 
Monday will be the worst with everywhere below significant snowpack 
experiencing these conditions. Winds will be strong, high 
temperatures above to well normal, High Haines and spotty super 
Haines, and to 12 hours of single digit humidities will all play a 
role in producing these serious fire conditions. 

An upper level disturbance will cross NM Tuesday and Tuesday night, 
finally bringing relief from this weather pattern. Cooler 
temperatures and higher humidities will lower the risk of critical 
fire weather conditions, although the eastern plains could still see 
critical conditions Tuesday afternoon. Wednesday will be dry and 
cooler, while Thursday and Friday warm up again under high pressure. 
Increasing winds and dry conditions could bring about the return of 
critical fire weather next weekend. CHJ

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE 
A disturbance tracking across the area today will result in rain, 
high elevation snow, and a few thunderstorms across northern and
western NM. However, not much precipitation is expected. Rather, dry
thunderstorms with gusty and erratic winds and gusts of 40 to 50 
knots will likely be more common. Gusty, northwest winds of 30 to 40
knots will also be expected across most of the area through this 
evening behind a Pacific cold front. Precipitation and the strongest 
winds will taper off this evening, but a backdoor cold front moving 
through the eastern plains will result in a northerly wind shift 
after 00Z. Showers and thunderstorms will bring measurable rain to 
a lucky few in the northeast into the night. CHJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  34  75  44  78 /   5   0   0   0 
Dulce...........................  25  68  34  73 /  10   0   0   0 
Cuba............................  31  70  38  74 /   5   0   0   0 
Gallup..........................  28  72  36  75 /   5   0   0   0 
El Morro........................  29  68  34  72 /   5   0   0   0 
Grants..........................  28  72  34  76 /   5   0   0   0 
Quemado.........................  32  71  36  74 /   5   0   0   0 
Magdalena.......................  39  73  41  78 /   5   0   0   0 
Datil...........................  35  69  37  73 /   5   0   0   0 
Reserve.........................  28  75  34  79 /   5   0   0   0 
Glenwood........................  41  78  46  82 /   5   0   0   0 
Chama...........................  23  62  31  66 /  10   0   0   0 
Los Alamos......................  37  68  44  73 /   5   0   0   0 
Pecos...........................  34  68  43  75 /   5   0   0   0 
Cerro/Questa....................  35  62  42  67 /  20   0   0   0 
Red River.......................  24  57  33  63 /  20   0   0   0 
Angel Fire......................  19  59  30  64 /  10   0   0   0 
Taos............................  25  68  34  73 /  10   0   0   0 
Mora............................  28  66  38  73 /  10   0   0   0 
Espanola........................  35  74  44  80 /   5   0   0   0 
Santa Fe........................  37  68  44  74 /   5   0   0   0 
Santa Fe Airport................  32  73  40  78 /   5   0   0   0 
Albuquerque Foothills...........  43  75  50  81 /   5   0   0   0 
Albuquerque Heights.............  41  76  48  82 /   5   0   0   0 
Albuquerque Valley..............  39  78  47  84 /   5   0   0   0 
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  40  76  48  83 /   5   0   0   0 
Belen...........................  37  78  43  85 /   5   0   0   0 
Bernalillo......................  38  78  46  85 /   5   0   0   0 
Bosque Farms....................  37  77  44  84 /   5   0   0   0 
Corrales........................  39  78  47  84 /   5   0   0   0 
Los Lunas.......................  38  77  45  84 /   5   0   0   0 
Placitas........................  41  73  48  78 /   5   0   0   0 
Rio Rancho......................  39  77  47  84 /   5   0   0   0 
Socorro.........................  41  79  46  87 /   5   0   0   0 
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  41  67  47  73 /   5   0   0   0 
Tijeras.........................  39  71  45  76 /   5   0   0   0 
Edgewood........................  34  71  41  77 /   5   0   0   0 
Moriarty/Estancia...............  29  72  38  79 /   5   0   0   0 
Clines Corners..................  32  67  39  75 /   5   0   0   0 
Mountainair.....................  35  69  41  76 /   5   0   0   0 
Gran Quivira....................  36  68  43  75 /   5   0   0   0 
Carrizozo.......................  42  73  48  81 /   5   0   0   0 
Ruidoso.........................  40  68  47  74 /   5   0   0   0 
Capulin.........................  27  66  39  75 /  30   0   0   0 
Raton...........................  25  72  36  80 /  20   0   0   0 
Springer........................  27  72  38  79 /  20   0   0   0 
Las Vegas.......................  30  69  41  77 /  10   0   0   0 
Clayton.........................  34  70  44  83 /  30   0   0   0 
Roy.............................  31  71  41  81 /  20   0   0   0 
Conchas.........................  35  77  45  87 /  10   0   0   0 
Santa Rosa......................  35  75  45  83 /   5   0   0   0 
Tucumcari.......................  37  79  48  90 /  10   0   0   0 
Clovis..........................  39  76  46  87 /   5   0   0   0 
Portales........................  38  78  46  89 /   5   0   0   0 
Fort Sumner.....................  37  79  44  88 /   5   0   0   0 
Roswell.........................  43  82  48  92 /   5   0   0   0 
Picacho.........................  41  77  48  84 /   5   0   0   0 
Elk.............................  41  77  47  83 /   5   0   0   0 

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for 
the following zones... NMZ101>109.

Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for 
the following zones... NMZ101>109.

Wind Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for the following zones...
 NMZ223.

&&

$$