National Weather Service Text Product
AFOS product AFDABQ
Dates interpreted at 00:00 UTCDisplaying AFOS PIL: AFDABQ
Product Timestamp: 2021-04-23 21:22 UTC
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810 FXUS65 KABQ 232122 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 322 PM MDT Fri Apr 23 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Windy conditions will continue through the evening behind a Pacific cold front and any showers tapering off. Winds won't be as strong on Saturday with slightly warmer temperatures than today's readings. Sunday should be the warmest day of the week for most locations with windy conditions returning ahead of the next storm system. A strong cold front will arrive early next week with stronger winds Monday, cooler temperatures, and increased precipitation chances through mid-week. && .DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)... An upper level trough is crossing NM this afternoon, bringing a little bit of rain, including some thunder and lightning, but strong wind gusts will be the main issue this evening. It will dry out and a little cooler during the night. A back door cold front will move south through the eastern plains tonight, but not make it too far west. The weekend will be very dry, much warmer, and have breezy to windy conditions both days. Sunday will be the winner for the more extreme conditions. In fact, widespread critical to extreme fire weather conditions are likely Sunday. CHJ LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)... As the next Pacific trough and associated cold front begin to approach Monday, deep mixing and strengthening southwest flow will lead to even windier conditions than on Sunday. Thus, winds were increased accordingly on Monday afternoon. While there's slightly better model agreement on the trough being placed further to the south, there's still some differences as far as timing goes. Northern and western New Mexico will mainly be favored for increased chances for rain, mountain snow, and thunderstorms and strong winds on Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures will fall below normal for the middle portion of the week in the wake of the system. Some warming occurs during the latter portion of the work week as a ridge moves in from the west. Stay tuned for the latest forecast as details are likely to change. 31 && .FIRE WEATHER... ...CRITICAL TO EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY... An upper level trough is crossing NM this afternoon creating strong and gusty winds, but not much precipitation. Showers and storms will continue through the early evening, but any wetting rainfall will be confined to a small area in northeast NM. The weekend and next Monday will develop into a dangerous situation with increasing critical and extreme fire behavior. Sunday and Monday will be the worst with everywhere below significant snowpack experiencing these conditions. Winds will be strong, high temperatures above to well normal, High Haines and spotty super Haines, and to 12 hours of single digit humidities will all play a role in producing these serious fire conditions. An upper level disturbance will cross NM Tuesday and Tuesday night, finally bringing relief from this weather pattern. Cooler temperatures and higher humidities will lower the risk of critical fire weather conditions, although the eastern plains could still see critical conditions Tuesday afternoon. Wednesday will be dry and cooler, while Thursday and Friday warm up again under high pressure. Increasing winds and dry conditions could bring about the return of critical fire weather next weekend. CHJ && .AVIATION... 18Z TAF CYCLE A disturbance tracking across the area today will result in rain, high elevation snow, and a few thunderstorms across northern and western NM. However, not much precipitation is expected. Rather, dry thunderstorms with gusty and erratic winds and gusts of 40 to 50 knots will likely be more common. Gusty, northwest winds of 30 to 40 knots will also be expected across most of the area through this evening behind a Pacific cold front. Precipitation and the strongest winds will taper off this evening, but a backdoor cold front moving through the eastern plains will result in a northerly wind shift after 00Z. Showers and thunderstorms will bring measurable rain to a lucky few in the northeast into the night. CHJ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 34 75 44 78 / 5 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 25 68 34 73 / 10 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 31 70 38 74 / 5 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 28 72 36 75 / 5 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 29 68 34 72 / 5 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 28 72 34 76 / 5 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 32 71 36 74 / 5 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 39 73 41 78 / 5 0 0 0 Datil........................... 35 69 37 73 / 5 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 28 75 34 79 / 5 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 41 78 46 82 / 5 0 0 0 Chama........................... 23 62 31 66 / 10 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 37 68 44 73 / 5 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 34 68 43 75 / 5 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 35 62 42 67 / 20 0 0 0 Red River....................... 24 57 33 63 / 20 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 19 59 30 64 / 10 0 0 0 Taos............................ 25 68 34 73 / 10 0 0 0 Mora............................ 28 66 38 73 / 10 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 35 74 44 80 / 5 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 37 68 44 74 / 5 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 32 73 40 78 / 5 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 43 75 50 81 / 5 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 41 76 48 82 / 5 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 39 78 47 84 / 5 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 40 76 48 83 / 5 0 0 0 Belen........................... 37 78 43 85 / 5 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 38 78 46 85 / 5 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 37 77 44 84 / 5 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 39 78 47 84 / 5 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 38 77 45 84 / 5 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 41 73 48 78 / 5 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 39 77 47 84 / 5 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 41 79 46 87 / 5 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 41 67 47 73 / 5 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 39 71 45 76 / 5 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 34 71 41 77 / 5 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 29 72 38 79 / 5 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 32 67 39 75 / 5 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 35 69 41 76 / 5 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 36 68 43 75 / 5 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 42 73 48 81 / 5 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 40 68 47 74 / 5 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 27 66 39 75 / 30 0 0 0 Raton........................... 25 72 36 80 / 20 0 0 0 Springer........................ 27 72 38 79 / 20 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 30 69 41 77 / 10 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 34 70 44 83 / 30 0 0 0 Roy............................. 31 71 41 81 / 20 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 35 77 45 87 / 10 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 35 75 45 83 / 5 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 37 79 48 90 / 10 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 39 76 46 87 / 5 0 0 0 Portales........................ 38 78 46 89 / 5 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 37 79 44 88 / 5 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 43 82 48 92 / 5 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 41 77 48 84 / 5 0 0 0 Elk............................. 41 77 47 83 / 5 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for the following zones... NMZ101>109. Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for the following zones... NMZ101>109. Wind Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for the following zones... NMZ223. && $$