488 
FXUS61 KBGM 230518
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
118 AM EDT Fri Apr 23 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure starts building into the region this evening, 
with snow showers coming to an end. Friday will be dry and 
seasonably mild, but another storm system will bring a chance 
for rain Saturday night into Sunday. High pressure makes a 
return Monday, with dry air and above average temperatures 
expected into Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

Early this morning, drier air has finally started to advect into
the region. A few snow showers are also lingering in NE PA but
radar trends continue to show the general idea of these dying
out over the next hour or two. Only minor forecast adjustments
with the remainder of the forecast. 

H850 ridging is starting to build into the area from the 
southwest and this will help dry things out. Expecting clouds 
to become mostly clear overnight, but there remains a decent 
pressure gradient over the area, which will help keep 
temperatures from really plummeting overnight. Even so, 
overnight lows will still drop back into the upper 20s and lower
30s. 

High pressure/ridging continues to build in from the west
tomorrow and much warmer conditions are expected with plenty of
sunshine Friday afternoon. Temperatures on Friday will climb 
into the mid 50s to lower 60s. Winds will still remain quite
gusty, as forecast soundings show pretty good mixing up to 5K+
feet, so gusts may exceed 25 mph at times through Friday
afternoon. Decided to add a fire weather discussion to the AFD
below, as conditions may elevate fire danger in some areas. The
pressure gradient eases tomorrow night and winds should become 
mostly calm in the valleys by Saturday morning. Expect another 
chilly night, with temperatures dropping into the 30s across 
much of the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
330 pm update...

Saturday will be dry with highs in the 60s and increasing
clouds. The trend has been to slow down the next system. Rain
moves in late Saturday evening and continues into Sunday
morning. Strengthening surface low pressure moves northeast out
of the Gulf to the east coast and NYC Sunday morning. The speed
is fast with an upper level trough moving right behind it. The
upper level trough cuts off in New England slowing the low well
after it exits our area. Rainfall will range from around a
quarter inch in the central southern tier to around half an inch
in the northern Poconos. This amount of rain will only cause
small rises on the streams and rivers with green up on the way. 

Sunday the rain exits from west to east during the morning to
early afternoon. Skies become mostly sunny in the afternoon.
High temperatures will be mostly in the mid and upper 50s, but
some low 60s are likely in the Wyoming Valley. 

Sunday night cold air advection from the northwest will continue
sending temperatures into the 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
330 pm update... 

Little change. continue to go above guidance for the high 
temperatures Tuesday to Thursday. Wednesday and Thursday could 
be around 80 degrees. 

High pressure is over the area Monday evening then a deep
southwest flow bringing much above average temperatures into the
area mid week. For the end of the week model differences on when
a cold front sinks southeast into the area. 

previous discussion...
Gradual clearing Sunday afternoon and night as the low pressure  
system departs and high pressure builds into the area by Monday.
This high pressure looks to become firmly established with a 
strong mid level ridge in place as well into the middle of next 
week. given the strength of the mid-level ridge opted for a 
slower timing of the next cold front holding off till after 
Wednesday. 

Also, warm air advection on the backside of the high should
result in a gradual warming trend with highs getting into the 
60's and 70's. A few spots Lows will be slower to respond but 
with dry weather a could push 80 based on modeled boundary layer
temperatures on Wednesday. So continued to trend highs toward 
the warmest ensemble members. Also, a wide diurnal spread is 
anticipated with 30's and 40's for lows. 

Mixing may become more of a concern as we get closer in time to
the middle of next week which usually causes for busts of 
modeled RH values in the afternoon. Given the rain expected 
Sunday, it would take fuels some time to dry out in terms of any
fire spread concerns due to weather.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

VFR throughout the TAF period. Main impacts at TAF sites will
come from westerly winds increasing to 10-20 knots later this
morning through the afternoon with top gusts of 25-30 knots. 
Winds decrease this evening. 

Outlook... 

Saturday... Mainly VFR expected.

Saturday night...A system brings rain and deteriorating 
conditions.

Sunday through Tuesday...Rain begins to gradually move out of 
the area Sunday morning with VFR conditions returning Sunday 
afternoon and remaining through the beginning of next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A deep, well mixed boundary layer on Friday will allow drier air
and gusty winds to mix down from aloft. Min RH values will be
between 20 to 30 percent in NE PA and into Sullivan County NY
and values will be in the 25 to 35 percent range across Central
NY. Winds will be gusty out of the WNW through the day, topping
out around 25 mph during the afternoon, before easing up
tomorrow evening. Latest observed 10 hour fuels are high...in 
the 15 to 25 percent range. Although we may hit Red Flag weather
conditions in NE PA and Sullivan County NY, recent 
precipitation and the state of current 1 and 10 hour fuel RH 
values may likely only warrant an SPS.

Saturday the relative humidity fall below 40 percent but winds
will be lighter. South winds at 10 mph possibly gusting to 20
mph in the afternoon.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPK
NEAR TERM...BJT/MPK/MPH/MWG
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...MWG/TAC
AVIATION...MWG
FIRE WEATHER...