144 
FXUS63 KEAX 230355
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1055 PM CDT Thu Apr 22 2021

.Discussion...
Issued at 256 PM CDT THU APR 22 2021

Key Message: 

- Scattered showers expected tonight, with rain chances continuing 
into late Friday. 

High and mid-level clouds continue to increase ahead of our next 
period of disturbed weather. Afternoon temperatures have warmed into 
the middle to upper 50s. A dry lower atmosphere remains in place, 
and will initially slow onset of shower activity. Still anticipate 
scattered showers to develop/move into the forecast area this 
evening, with light activity continuing into Friday in advance of 
the next upper wave moving into the Southern Plains on Friday. While 
rainfall amounts will be light tonight, a zone of heavier 
precipitation on the order of 1-2 inches will be possible across 
east central Kansas into central Missouri Friday afternoon into the 
night. Do not anticipate any flooding at this time based on the 
latest MBRFC guidance. 

In the wake of this system, a cold front will move through the 
forecast area on Saturday, but little cold air is associated with
the system resulting in readings warming near/slightly below 
seasonal levels. More notable warming and moisture transport is 
expected Sunday into Tuesday, as an upper level ridge will build 
into the central CONUS ahead of the next highly amplified wave. 
With the approach of the upper trough, the next chance for 
thunderstorms is expected on Tuesday evening/night. 

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1051 PM CDT THU APR 22 2021

Warm air advection showers are expected mainly east of the TAF
sites after 06Z, and should gradually work east through 12-15Z.
Thereafter, VFR conditions are expected to reign through the
morning, but stronger lift will develop through the afternoon
hours leading to late afternoon/Friday evening round of showers
along with lowering ceilings. Ceilings are expected to be in the
MVFR range with the shower activity, but will likely fall into the
IFR range Friday evening with light rain/drizzle persisting behind
the initial shower activity. 

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Blair
Aviation...BT