452 
FXUS62 KFFC 221435
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1035 AM EDT Thu Apr 22 2021



.UPDATE...
High pressure center will continue to build in from the west
today. Temps and dewpoints are on track this morning, so no
changes needed at this time.

The Freeze Warning expired at 9AM. 

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 725 AM EDT Thu Apr 22 2021/ 

SHORT TERM /Today through Friday/...

High pressure will build across the state today as a deep trough 
moves off the east coast. Expect lighter winds today although an 
occasional gust is possible this afternoon. Seeing some freezing 
temperatures in the northwest this morning. Have expanded the 
Freeze Warning to include all of the far northern counties. Some 
patchy frost is also possible across the north this morning. 
Otherwise dry through the short term. Have continued the Fire 
Danger Statement for central and east GA this afternoon due to 
critical relative humidity values and dry fuels. For Friday...some
moderation of humidity is expected and critical values should be 
confined to the far east central area. Low temperatures tonight 
into Friday morning look to be a little warmer than this morning. 
However...there could be some values near freezing in the far 
northeast. Will let next forecast shifts evaluate this. 

41

LONG TERM /Friday Night through Wednesday/...

The long term period will start off active with a fast-moving 
upper-level trough tracking across TX and the ArkLaMiss Friday 
night into Saturday morning. Warm, moist Gulf air will overspread 
the CWA Saturday morning and afternoon as the associated surface 
low tracks over or near the TN Valley. Maintaining likely to 
categorical PoPs across the majority of the CWA starting in the 
06z-12z Saturday time period, and continued those 70% to 90% PoPs 
area-wide until 00z Sunday.

Strong deep-layer shear and ample moisture are two severe weather
ingredients that will be checked off with this system, but there 
are a couple of factors that still make it a challenging forecast.
1) The track of the surface low and the location/progression of 
the associated warm front will play an important role in the 
severe weather potential across the CWA. 2) Also a contributing 
factor to whether the severe potential is realized across the CWA 
is whether the strong low-level jet shifts east and out of the 
area before instability is maximized. The NAM is supportive of 
these ingredients being co-located mainly across central Georgia, 
while the GFS has the LLJ outrunning the greatest instability.

In addition to the potential for severe storms, there continues 
to be a signal in the models for a heavy rain threat across much 
of the CWA. Model soundings show saturated profiles with progged 
PWATs reaching the 90% moving average to even maximum moving 
average for the day. There is lots of spread in terms of where the
models have the rainfall maximum, however. As it stands now, 
6-hour QPF through the event should be manageable given the recent
dry conditions and normal to below-normal streamflows. That said,
any locally heavier and/or longer-lasting rainfall -- especially 
across portions of north Georgia and metro Atlanta, where FFG is 
lower -- could lead to localized flash flooding and quick rises of
creeks, streams, and rivers.

Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday are on track to be sunny to mostly
sunny, dry, and warm (highs in the upper 70s to upper 80s) 
courtesy of a sprawling upper ridge building across the eastern 
half of the CONUS.

Martin

AVIATION...
12Z Update...
VFR conditions are expected through the period...with mainly 
clear skies and no visibility restrictions forecast. Light 
northwest or variable winds this morning becoming north to 
northwest 6 to 9 kts after 14z. Some gusts near 18kts possible
at KATL this afternoon. Winds becoming light northeast after 06z
Saturday.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
High confidence on all elements.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          65  40  69  52 /   0   0   5  70 
Atlanta         64  45  68  54 /   0   0  10  80 
Blairsville     58  36  62  47 /   0   0   5  80 
Cartersville    64  40  69  50 /   0   0  10  80 
Columbus        69  44  74  57 /   0   0  10  70 
Gainesville     63  39  66  51 /   0   0   5  80 
Macon           68  41  73  55 /   0   0   5  60 
Rome            65  40  69  52 /   0   0  10  90 
Peachtree City  66  40  70  52 /   0   0  10  80 
Vidalia         68  45  75  59 /   0   0   5  40 

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....Martin
AVIATION...41