478 
FXUS64 KMAF 171726
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1226 PM CDT Sat Apr 17 2021

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF issuance
All terminals have return to VFR with mid level clouds streaming
across and even a few showers from time to time. Northeast winds 
continue to decrease, but direction to stay the same through the
period. Low cigs possible Sunday morning across SE NM with lessor
confidence further east.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 614 AM CDT Sat Apr 17 2021/ 

DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
Currently only have KFST holding MVFR with remaining terminals
VFR as cigs have slowly improved last few hrs. Considering trends
at KFST last hr, expect VFR within 12-14z period, which will
create a prevailing VFR forecast everywhere thru the daytime hrs.
Steady NE flow will continue with OVC/BKN ceilings between 5-10k
ft due to overrunning setup. Chc of SHRA for KHOB/KMAF this
afternoon, but still not enough to warrant a prevailing, so will
AMD when necessary to add based on radar trends. 

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 320 AM CDT Sat Apr 17 2021/ 

DISCUSSION...
A cold front moved through the area yesterday bringing cooler 
temperatures to the area. We will likely see record low maximum 
values today at several locations, including MAF, due to cold air
advection and persistent cloud cover that has remained over the 
area for several days. In addition, current radar is showing light
showers from the Davis Mountains to the northeastern Permian 
Basin associated with the right entry region of an upper jet max 
that will continue throughout the day. This activity is not heavy 
but may provide a few hundredths of an inch of rain and anything 
at this point is appreciated. Slight rain chances will continue 
into Monday with the aid of a weak upper level disturbance moving 
across the desert southwest and into Texas.

The well below normal temps will continue into Sunday before
northwesterly flow shifts the moisture to our east and clearing
skies allow for a warmer Monday. However the northwesterly flow
will also bring another cold front into the CWA on Tuesday that
will keep temperatures below normal through the end of the
forecast period. Rain chances then end after the second frontal 
passage on Tuesday for a few days due to northwesterly and 
westerly upper level steering flow keeping the moisture to our 
east. This may change next Thursday with all models showing an 
upper trough or low pressure system dropping southeast out of the 
Pacific Northwest and across the southern Rockies. There is 
uncertainty in the depth and speed of this system though most 
models keep it an open trough and moving quickly across the South 
Plains. There are some indications that the trough could deepen 
into a low and progress much more slowly possibly giving us a 
decent chance for rainfall. The wetter pattern is the outlier 
solution and will not emphasize rain chances at this time, but it
will be something that will bear watching in the days ahead.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     51  37  61  42 /  20  10  10   0 
Carlsbad                       52  37  56  39 /  30  20  40  10 
Dryden                         58  46  64  49 /  20  10  10  20 
Fort Stockton                  53  40  59  45 /  20  20  20  20 
Guadalupe Pass                 46  35  49  40 /  30  20  30  20 
Hobbs                          47  34  56  38 /  20  10  30  10 
Marfa                          52  31  58  35 /  20  20  20  40 
Midland Intl Airport           52  38  59  42 /  20  10  20  10 
Odessa                         51  38  59  43 /  20  10  20  10 
Wink                           54  38  60  41 /  20  20  30  10 

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

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