276 
FXUS62 KJAX 092331
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
731 PM EDT Fri Apr 9 2021

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Surface high pressure will be east of the region through tonight.
The position of the high will yield a low level flow generally 
from the south which will continue to bring warm and moist air 
into region. Aloft, the region is on the east side of an upper 
trough. A weak ridge will move east through this upper flow later
tonight, helping to dissipate the remaining convective activity to
our west. Temperatures tonight will be warm with lows in the upper
50s over inland SE GA, low to mid 60s in NE FL and coastal SE GA.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 00Z Sunday]

VFR conditions likely through most of the period, with very low
end chances for fog near GNV and VQQ again late tonight/early Sat
morning. Winds from the southwest will increase again Sat after
sunrise ahead of an approaching storm system. A line of storms 
could approach our TAF sites late in the period (around 21Z), 
though many models continue to show the strongest storms diving 
south- southeast, remaining away from most of our TAF sites.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [257 PM EDT]...

.Short Term...[Saturday through Monday night]...

For Saturday, the surface high will push a little further to the 
east along with the 500mb ridge. A vigorous upper wave will move 
into region from the west Saturday afternoon. This wave will push 
east southeast across area Saturday afternoon through Saturday 
night. A squall line is expected to develop on the leading edge of
this system, which could provide strong to severe storms. Some 
weakening is possible into the evening with loss of diurnal 
heating. While hail and a few tornadoes can not be ruled out with 
the squall line, the main hazard will be damaging wind, with the 
leading line itself expected to be moving rapidly.

Another stormy day expected Sunday, as a cold front sweeps 
southeast across region, and an upper wave moves across. In 
addition to potential for strong to severe storms Sunday, could 
see some training cells leading to potential for flooding. 

High pressure will build from the northwest Monday into Monday night
with a dry period forecast.

Temperatures will trend above normal through Saturday, near normal 
Sunday, then back above again for Monday.


.Long Term...[Tuesday through Friday]...

A slow moving cold front will make this period somewhat unsettled. 

The front will move southeast to just north of forecast area Tuesday
with moisture lifting northeast from the gulf. The front is expected
to move into area Wednesday, with moisture moving northeast along 
it. The front will be slow to move through, with it possibly 
lingering across area into Thursday with more energy and moisture 
moving across it. 

High pressure is expected to push the front to the south on Friday, 
leading to a drying trend.  

Temperatures will trend above normal into Wednesday, then near 
normal for Thursday into Friday.


.Marine...

High pressure will be east of the region Tonight, with an upper wave
moving across area. A squall line of showers and storms is expected 
to sweep east southeast across the area Saturday afternoon and 
evening. A cold front will move southeast through region Sunday, 
with another round of showers and storms expected. High pressure 
will build across Monday. A slow moving cold front will affect the 
region Tuesday through Thursday.
 
Rip Currents:  SE GA trending to Moderate for Saturday
               NE FL Moderate through Saturday

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  60  82  61  80  55 /  20  60  30  40  10 
SSI  65  74  64  79  60 /  20  60  40  50  20 
JAX  62  86  64  81  60 /  20  50  40  50  20 
SGJ  63  82  65  79  62 /  10  30  40  50  20 
GNV  61  85  63  80  59 /  10  60  50  50  10 
OCF  61  86  64  80  61 /  10  80  60  60  20 

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&