499 
FXUS64 KMEG 081747 AAA
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1247 PM CDT Thu Apr 8 2021

.UPDATE...
Updated for 18Z Aviation Forecast Discussion below. 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1024 AM CDT Thu Apr 8 2021/ 

DISCUSSION...

Skies are sunny this morning across the Mid-South with
temperatures ranging from the mid 50s to the upper 60s. A nice
spring day is in store across the region as temperatures warm into
the mid 60s to upper 70s.

ARS

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 319 AM CDT Thu Apr 8 2021/ 

DISCUSSION...

Back edge of convection continues to push through Northeast
Mississippi this morning. The line seems to have reintensified
over the last 30 minutes as lightning has increased. Expect the 
line to be east of the area by the next hour or so. Skies have 
already cleared across a good chunk of the Mid-South. However with
the upper low remaining across Central Missouri today, the clear
skies will be short-lived. Expect low clouds that are currently 
over Northwest Arkansas and Southwest Missouri to move into 
Northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and Northwest Tennessee
later this morning into the afternoon hours. Some additional 
strato-cu development may occur as well as far south as the MS/TN 
border. Can't rule out an isolated shower occurring near the AR/MO
and KY/TN border, but not enough to mention on forecast as expect
most of the coverage to stay north of the CWA. The clouds will 
keep temperatures cooler thus expect a wide range in highs across 
the CWA. Expect mid to upper 60s across the locations that have 
cloud cover to the upper 70s in Northeast Mississippi that will 
have plenty of sunshine. Gusty southwest winds will occur as well 
across the region.

Tonight, a pseudo-warm front will begin to move northward across
Central Mississippi and may reach extreme southern portions of the
CWA by sunrise. Some showers may begin developing north of this
front shortly before sunrise. Also, can't rule out some fog
development. Otherwise, the front will mainly just bring some
higher dewpoints into the Mid-South.

Patchy showers may continue into Friday morning as the front
continues to lift north through the CWA. Expect clouds to scatter
out by the afternoon leaving a warm and moist unstable airmass
across the Mid-South. The upper flow aloft will be split by Friday
morning and an upper trof will begin to eject out of the Southern
Plains through the southern branch into the Mid-South by Friday
Night. Several of the CAM models show an initial round of
convection developing with a lead shortwave Friday afternoon
across Central Arkansas that will move into the Mid-South late
Friday afternoon into early Friday evening. With the convection
moving in around peak heating, any of these storms have the
potential to become severe as CAPE values may be as high as 3000
J/KG. The main shortwave will arrive later in the evening. The 
3 KM NAM shows a MCS developing across Arkansas moving into the 
Mid-South during the overnight hours. CAPE values will still range
from 1500-2000 J/kg during the overnight hours thus the 
convection will likely remain severe as it moves across the CWA. 
Damaging winds and tornadoes will be the main threats. However, 
locally heavy rainfall will also be possible which may lead to 
flash flooding. Stay tuned.

The northern branch upper trof will swing into the Mid-South on
Saturday. There could be some redevelopment of showers possibly
even some thunderstorms across areas of West Tennessee near the
Tennessee River and Northeast Mississippi during the afternoon
hours. 

High pressure will build over the Mid-South for Sunday. Winds will
still remain southerly thus expect highs to be in the lower to mid
70s.

A cold front will move through the CWA on Monday. Models are now
indicating the front may come through dry. Cooler temperatures
will filter into the region behind the front and will remain in
place through the middle of next week as high pressure builds over
the Midwest. Expect highs to range from the mid 60s to lower 70s.

KRM 

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFs

VFR to prevail through the next 30 hours. Strato cumulus to the 
north of MEM should dissipate with loss of surface heating this 
evening. 

Expect sufficient moisture for cumulus on Friday, with TSRA 
chances starting to edge up around 00Z at MEM. Beyond the valid 
MEM TAF, MEM TSRA chances appear to peak 04Z-06Z Saturday, 
possibly preceded a few hours by FL020 winds around 18050KT.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$