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450 FXUS62 KJAX 080028 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 828 PM EDT Wed Apr 7 2021 .UPDATE... East coast seabreeze has made it about mid-way through the FL Peninsula and Gulf coast seabreeze has made it north to the FL-GA line as seen in local wind observations and satellite observations. Now that we've lost that insolation for the night, those winds will settle down for the night over the next few hours, becoming light and variable. Patchy fog development is possible west of the FL I-75 corridor late tonight/early Thursday morning. && .AVIATION... [Through 00Z Friday] VFR conditions through the period. Light and variable winds through the early morning hours becoming southwest around 5-10 knots around 15Z with an onshore seabreeze bringing south- southeasterly winds to SSI and SGJ around 17Z. && .PREV DISCUSSION [521 PM EDT]... .NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]... High pressure at the surface is positioned over the southern half of the Florida peninsula near Lake Okeechobee with mid to upper level ridging stretching north from the NE Gulf of Mexico up the west side of the Appalachian mountains into the eastern Great Lakes. This feature is allowing subsidence over the region to continue dry conditions and deflecting shortwave energy, higher moisture content, and showers well NW of the region over the TN Valley ahead of a surface cold front over the southern plains states. With surface high pressure to our south, a light southwest low level flow has allowed the seabreezes to intrude inland with the Gulf coast sea breeze more dominant today as it nears I-75 due to the low level SW flow while the Atlantic seabreeze remains east of I-95. The warmest temperatures this afternoon have been between the seabreezes with values in the mid 80s and cooler in areas affected by the seabreezes into the upper 70s to near 80 degrees. Tonight, mostly clear skies will give way to increasing high and mid level clouds from the west with light south winds. patchy fog is possible over the suwannee river valley of NE FL where the Gulf coast seabreeze increased surface moisture and stable high pressure pattern will be in place. Low temperatures overnight will be around normal values in the lower to mid 50s. .SHORT TERM [Thursday Through Friday Night]... Ridging aloft will over the east coast of the U.S. on Thursday and then move just off the coast over the western Atlantic waters on Friday as a closed shortwave trough rotates eastward from the plains states into the mid MS Valley and then pivots northward into the western Great Lakes. Underneath the shortwave, a prefrontal trough will progress eastward into the deep south on Thursday with showers pushing east into GA, but the dry airmass and ridging aloft will keep most shower activity west of the area. However, a belt of higher moisture with PWATs between 1.2 and 1.5 inches will advect into the area late Thursday night into Friday over SE GA with scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm possible as mid level shortwave energy moves over the region which will help to enhance lift. Some of the heavier showers may bring some locally heavy rainfall amounts for area near and north of the Altamaha and Ocmulgee river basins. Meanwhile, much of of NE FL will remain drier with only isolated showers possible aided by weak seabreeze convergence. Highs on Thursday will be above seasonal values by about 5-10 degrees in the mid 80s inland and the upper 70s to around 80 at the beaches thanks to the Atlantic seabreeze will be pinned close to the coast thanks to prevailing low level SW flow. Similar highs are expected on Friday except for areas north of Waycross where additional clouds, showers, and isolated storms will keep values rising only to around 80 degrees. Friday's low temperatures will be just above normal in the upper 50s to near 60 degrees over NE FL and SE GA. .LONG TERM [Saturday Through Wednesday]... Saturday, a strong positively tilted shortwave will emerge from the Rocky mountains into western NE and KS and dive ESE towards the MID MS Valley region as the downstream closed shortwave lifts northward from near Lake Superior into Canada. Ridging over the Bahamas will allow southwest flow over our region, but low level southerly flow over the Peninsula will keep moisture levels from rising until late in the day. A cold front will move into the deep south and approach our area. The greatest chance for showers and storms will be Saturday evening into early Sunday morning as a wave of convection runs ahead of the front. The biggest threat may be with squall line of storms that may bring a threat of strong wind gusts into the late night and early morning hours of Sunday. Deep shear will be lacking with values toppling out only in the 35-40 knots range, with only 25-30 knots of low level shear and CAPE values around 5000-100 J/KG confined more to the western portion of the area. The cold front will slow down as it approaches the FL/GA state line and scattered storms are possible with diurnal heating Sunday afternoon before the cold front sags south of the area late Sunday night. Monday into Wednesday, Weak high pressure will move just north of the region with drier candidness under mostly sunny skies with light northwest winds as the cold front should depart farther south of the area as the GFS and ECMWF have come into better agreement this afternoon. The high will move over the area on Tuesday and then east into the western Atlantic waters near the Bahamas as a another cold front approaches from the west with isolated shower coverage expected on Wednesday. Temperatures will be above normal on Saturday, near normal on Sunday due to more clouds and shower activity and then return to above normal values Monday through Wednesday. .MARINE... High pressure will prevail to the southeast through Thursday, then to the east Friday into Saturday. A series of frontal boundaries will move southeast across region Saturday afternoon through Sunday, with rounds of showers and thunderstorms expected over the waters. Elevated winds and seas could lead to Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions late Saturday night into early Sunday. Weak high pressure will build early next week, with a cold front moving southeast across area late Tuesday into Wednesday. Rip Currents: Low risk of Rip currents for NE FL and SE GA beaches. .FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions will continue with high pressure near the region into Thursday with a gradual increase in RH levels into Friday. High dispersions are expected Thursday afternoon over Southeast Georgia and on Friday over Northeast Florida areas as surface and transport winds increase from the southwest. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 53 81 60 79 59 / 0 10 40 50 20 SSI 58 78 62 77 63 / 0 0 20 30 20 JAX 56 85 60 83 63 / 0 0 20 20 10 SGJ 58 81 61 80 64 / 0 0 10 20 10 GNV 53 84 57 85 60 / 0 0 10 20 10 OCF 53 85 58 87 61 / 0 0 10 10 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. &&