753 
FXUS64 KMAF 072355
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
655 PM CDT Wed Apr 7 2021

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. Gusty late afternoon wind may hang on at a couple TAF sites 
until 02z but these will be decreasing overnight. Wind will remain
W to NW through the TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 245 PM CDT Wed Apr 7 2021/ 

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper trough now over central KS, leaving West 
Texas and Southeast New Mexico under dry, NW flow aloft. Dewpoints 
at KMAF dropped to the single digits overnight, but fropa has 
moistened things up a bit.  Even so, Red Flag conditions are 
anticipated this afternoon over SE NM and adjacent areas of West 
Texas to the south.  

Despite the cold front, temps this afternoon should top out above 
normal, and warm Thursday/Friday as thicknesses increase under NW 
flow aloft.  MOS suggests high winds in the Guadalupes Thursday and 
Friday afternoon, but weak mtn wave signatures, loose 700mb height 
gradients, soundings, and the synoptic pattern don't support this, 
so we'll keep the mtns out of high wind territory for now.  Although 
ERCs got a reprieve from last night's cold front, they will increase 
over the next couple of days, for continued critical fire wx, 
especially Friday.  See Fire Wx Discussion below for more details.

Unfortunately, a cold front will backdoor the area Friday night, 
taking temps Saturday afternoon down to around normal.  However, 
this will be short-lived, as return flow resumes Saturday night, to 
be replaced by downslope westerlies Sunday for a quick rebound on 
afternoon highs.  This, too will be ephemeral, as a stronger cold 
front infests the region late Sunday night.  This will take temps 
back to normal Monday afternoon, and below normal Tuesday and 
Wednesday.  Beginning Tuesday, easterly upslope and associated Gulf 
moisture will combine will shortwaves moving though zonal-to-SW flow 
aloft for isolated chances of convection. Stay tuned.

FIRE WEATHER...

A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for southeast New Mexico, the 
Guadalupe Mountains, and Culberson County in Texas where RHs are 
less than 10 percent and wind gusts are between 15-25 kts currently. 
Winds are expected to remain elevated with collocation of critical 
RHs through this afternoon and early evening. Critical to extreme 
fire weather conditions are anticipated once again Thursday across 
the Guadalupe Mountains, Eddy County, and Culberson County in Texas 
where a Fire Weather Watch is in effect. RH values as low as 5 
percent combined with 20 ft winds at 20 kts or greater are expected 
to develop across this region. RFTI values are expected to peak at 4-
6 in the plains and 6-8 in the mountains. ERCs are mainly in the 
50th-70th percentile range, however 100 hr fuels will continue to 
dry out rapidly due to very poor overnight moisture recovery which 
will cause ERC values to increase. Critically dry conditions will 
continue into Friday and expand to areas southeast of the currently 
impacted areas and potentially as far east as portions of the 
Permian Basin. On Saturday, fire weather concerns will decrease as a 
cold front moves across the region and min RHs increase with better 
overnight recoveries expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     46  87  56  89 /   0   0   0   0 
Carlsbad                       47  88  56  86 /   0   0   0   0 
Dryden                         55  96  60  94 /   0   0   0   0 
Fort Stockton                  53  88  62  87 /   0   0   0   0 
Guadalupe Pass                 53  80  54  77 /   0   0   0   0 
Hobbs                          45  84  53  84 /   0   0   0   0 
Marfa                          44  83  49  81 /   0   0   0   0 
Midland Intl Airport           48  87  57  88 /   0   0   0   0 
Odessa                         49  86  57  88 /   0   0   0   0 
Wink                           47  89  55  89 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Chavez Plains-
     Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe 
     Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday 
     evening for Eddy Plains-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe 
     Mountains.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for 
     Eastern Culberson County-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 
     Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Van Horn and Highway 
     54 Corridor.

     Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday 
     evening for Eastern Culberson County-Guadalupe Mountains 
     Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Van Horn 
     and Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$