901 
FXUS62 KJAX 050537
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
137 AM EDT Mon Apr 5 2021

.AVIATION...
[Through 06Z Tuesday]

VFR conditions will prevail at the regional terminals. Light
westerly winds will develop shortly after sunrise, followed by 
the development of the Atlantic sea breeze along the coast towards
16Z. Surface winds will shift to easterly and increase to around 
10 knots at the coastal terminals towards 17Z, with the sea breeze
then passing CRG by 19Z and JAX by 20Z. Surface winds will shift 
to southerly around 5 knots shortly after 00Z. 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [908 PM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Negatively-tilted troughing/cutoff upper low off the New England 
coast will generate a strengthening ocean storm off the Canadian 
Maritime region that will maintain a deep and dry northwesterly 
flow pattern over the region. Surface ridging centered directly 
over the area will gradually weaken and will essentially remain 
in place through tonight. Full sunshine this afternoon will allow
temperatures to climb into the low to mid 70s, except upper 60s to
near 70 at coastal locations. These highs are still a few degrees
below early April climatology.

Strong radiational cooling will occur again region-wide tonight
beneath fair skies. Lows will range from around 40 inland to the
upper 40s at coastal locations. These lows are still about 7-11
degrees below climatology.


.SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday]...

Surface ridge over the area on Monday will shift to the south on
Tuesday. A light southwest flow with abundant sunshine will 
produce warmer temperatures. Highs will reach the upper 70s to
lower 80s. Afternoon sea breezes will keep the coast cooler with 
highs in the low/mid 70s. Low temperatures will be in the upper 
40s and lower 50s.


.LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Sunday]...

Surface high pressure will be located to the southeast producing a 
south to southwest flow. Temperatures will be above normal with 
daily highs reaching the low/mid 80s inland with the afternoon 
seabreeze keeping the coast a few degrees cooler. An approaching 
cold front and upper trough will approach and move into the area 
bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms Thursday through 
the weekend.


.MARINE...

Strong high pressure centered over our waters will gradually shift
southward while weakening on Monday. This will create a 
prevailing south to southwest wind flow through midweek, with sea
breezes developing each afternoon over the near shore waters. 
Seas of 4-5 feet offshore and 3-4 feet near shore will subside 
tonight as winds diminish. Southerly winds will then begin to 
strengthen on Thursday well in advance of a cold front that will 
remain west of our waters through at least Friday afternoon.

Rip Currents: A northeasterly ocean swell and an onshore breeze
this afternoon will create a moderate rip current risk at all area
beaches today. The lingering swell will likely keep a low-end
moderate risk at the northeast FL beaches on Monday, while low
wave heights result in a low risk at the southeast GA beaches.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Minimum relative humidities will be critically low over inland
areas this afternoon through Tuesday afternoon. Light surface and
transport winds will result in low dispersions this afternoon and
again on Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  79  46  81  50  83 /   0   0   0   0   0 
SSI  75  52  78  56  79 /   0   0   0   0   0 
JAX  79  48  81  53  83 /   0   0   0   0   0 
SGJ  77  51  78  55  79 /   0   0   0   0   0 
GNV  79  48  81  49  83 /   0   0   0   0   0 
OCF  80  49  83  51  85 /   0   0   0   0   0 

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&