522 
FXUS63 KICT 041809
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
109 PM CDT Sun Apr 4 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Sun Apr 4 2021

Kansas will remain under the influence of the broader low 
amplitude ridge migrating eastward today over the northern Plains 
into the Upper Midwest. The increasing southerly low level flow 
will continue to advect slightly higher dew points into central 
and eastern Kansas today through Monday. The warmest daytime 
temperatures will reside across western portions of central Kansas
with highs topping 80F each day. A subtle shortwave aloft late 
tonight into Monday morning moving across central Kansas will 
encounter weak elevated moisture transport. While a few showers 
cannot be ruled out Monday morning, it may end up just being some
accas, so will keep the forecast dry for now. A better chance for
some elevated showers/storms look to arrive late Monday night 
into midday Tuesday, where better elevated moisture transport 
will occur out ahead of the approaching upper low moving from the 
northern into the central Rockies. Stronger lee side cyclogenesis 
will take place into Tuesday afternoon with a rather sharp dry-
line developing across western Kansas. Moderate instability is 
progged just ahead of the dry-line, though cap strength could be 
prohibitive of realizing surface based convection during peak 
heating. Nonetheless, the combination of stronger forcing for 
ascent by Tuesday evening as the cold front merges with the dry- 
line, should result in scattered to numerous showers and storms 
from central into eastern Kansas. While more likely elevated, 
marginally severe storms with wind and hail will be possible. 

Darmofal

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Sun Apr 4 2021

Low level cold advection will occur across the area beneath the 
upper low across southern Nebraska/northern Kansas on Wednesday.
Moisture wrapping around the low within the thermal trof should
support scattered showers as well. Dry weather and a warming trend
will commence for the end of the week in the wake of the departing
low. 

KED 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sun Apr 4 2021

Highlights:
Gusty winds this afternoon/early evening and again Monday
afternoon 

Increasing cloud cover tonight into Monday morning 

Southerly winds are on the uptick once more with the arrival of
the afternoon. Sustained speeds should range from 15-20kts into
the evening. While there is still the hint that low level wind 
shear could be a factor tonight given the increasing low level 
jet, the influence to the TAF sites may not occur thus it was left
out. Another round of breezy southerly winds is expected on 
Monday with speeds slightly higher for many sites compared to 
today. 

The low ceilings remain across the Red River Valley and southern 
portions of OK even into midday. These clouds have not reached 
into KS, but the edge of the scattered cumulus continues to creep 
north which will be monitored to see if they reach any of the TAF 
sites in the first part of the TAF period. This batch of clouds 
and the increase in moisture that is expected tonight to move into
southeast KS. The trajectory looks to be further to the east and 
later than the previous forecast indicated. Therefore changes were
made accordingly to limit the presence for KICT and KHUT. Based 
on the current ceilings, the expectation would be KCNU could drop 
down to low VFR or MVFR on Monday morning. 

There is still potential for a few showers in northern KS 
tonight. The activity looks like it will stay north of the KRSL 
and KSLN with a possibility of sprinkles but nothing impactful 
aviation wise. An increase in cloud cover is expected though 
across north central KS, but ceilings should remain in the VFR 
category. 

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 313 AM CDT Sun Apr 4 2021

Stronger south winds this afternoon across central Kansas will
result in a few hours of very high grassland fire danger. Gusty 
south winds will prevail across the entire area on Monday with 
a few hours of very high fire danger across much of the area. 
There will be periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms 
Tuesday through Wednesday, limiting the fire danger risk. 

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    79  55  79  60 /   0   0   0  10 
Hutchinson      81  55  81  59 /   0   0   0  20 
Newton          80  55  80  59 /   0   0   0  20 
ElDorado        79  55  79  60 /   0   0   0  10 
Winfield-KWLD   79  55  79  60 /   0   0   0  10 
Russell         84  54  84  57 /   0  10  10  20 
Great Bend      83  54  83  57 /   0   0   0  20 
Salina          82  56  82  59 /   0  10  10  20 
McPherson       81  55  81  58 /   0   0  10  20 
Coffeyville     78  55  78  59 /   0   0  10  10 
Chanute         78  55  78  59 /   0   0  10  10 
Iola            77  55  77  58 /   0   0  10  10 
Parsons-KPPF    78  55  78  59 /   0   0  10  10 

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...VJP
FIRE WEATHER...KED