178 
FXUS64 KBRO 041750 AAB
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1250 PM CDT Sun Apr 4 2021

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...Low to mid level clouds and moderate southeast winds 
prevail across deep south Texas early this afternoon. Increasing 
clouds, mainly mid to high level, and moderate winds are expected 
across the area this afternoon as an upper level disturbance 
passes overhead. VFR conditions are expected through the rest of 
this afternoon into tonight. Winds will diminish this evening, 
while ceilings gradually lower. MVFR ceilings are possible late 
tonight into Monday morning, especially near MFE. However, 
confidence is low and cloud decks could easily remain in the VFR 
range. 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 628 AM CDT Sun Apr 4 2021/ 

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...A mid-level deck of cloudiness has developed over MFE,
while HRL and BRO remain in the clear. VFR is expected during the
daylight hours today with winds becoming moderate. Winds will
diminish this evening, and while MVFR is forecast, confidence is
low and decks could easily be in the VFR range. 

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 318 AM CDT Sun Apr 4 2021/ 

SHORT TERM (Now through Monday): Moderating and much more near 
normal daytime and overnight temperatures are forecast during the 
period with a persistent onshore flow in place. Weather-wise, a 
nearly zonal mid-level flow will prevail over Deep South Texas and 
the Rio Grande Valley. Although dry weather is anticipated inland, 
isolated showers may occur over the lower Texas coastal waters on 
Monday, mainly in the form of streamer activity. 

LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday): A 500mb trough works
into the Plains on Tuesday and eventually through the Great Lakes
region into the weekend. Weak mid level ridging gradually builds
across Texas through the long term with dry air aloft through late
in the week. The pressure gradient strengthens on Tuesday with 
low pressure in the Plains, potentially leading to the need for a 
Wind Advisory across coastal counties. 

A Fire Danger Statement may also be needed Tuesday afternoon for 
portions of Deep South Texas with RH values dipping below 30 
percent and 20 foot wind speeds between 15 to 20 mph across Jim 
Hogg, Starr, and Zapata counties. Overall, hot and dry conditions
continue through the remainder of the long term period, with near
mid summer like triple digit highs across western counties. 
Breezy afternoons could elevate any fire weather concerns with the
ongoing drought and near explosive fuel state. Burn bans continue
across most of the CWA, according to TFS. 

A weak inverted trough of low pressure helps reintroduce some
moisture next weekend and potentially setting up convective
activity north of the CWA and across northeastern Mexico. The cap
may be too strong for much of any development locally, but there
may be at least something on radar Friday and Saturday. 

MARINE (Now through Monday): Moderate seas are expected along the 
Lower Texas Coast during the period as swell from the east-southeast 
persists. Moderate winds are also anticipated with surface high 
pressure in control over the western Gulf of Mexico. Neither Small 
Craft Exercise Caution nor Small Craft Advisory are likely to be 
needed. 

Monday Night through Saturday: High pressure sits off the
southeastern US coast through late next week with a southeasterly
to southerly flow expected along the lower Texas coast. As low
pressure develops across the Plains, expect southeasterly winds to
increase Tuesday into Wednesday. Seas of 3 to 5 feet build toward
4 to 7 feet Wednesday into Thursday before diminishing back to 3 
to 5 feet into next weekend. Brief Small Craft Advisory conditions
are possible on Wednesday. Small Craft Caution conditions are 
likely Tuesday through Thursday. A weak trough of low pressure 
brings back the chance for showers or thunderstorms next weekend. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  75  64  79  66 /   0  10  10   0 
BROWNSVILLE          78  64  82  68 /   0  10  10   0 
HARLINGEN            79  63  83  67 /   0  10  10   0 
MCALLEN              81  64  84  68 /   0  10  10   0 
RIO GRANDE CITY      84  63  86  66 /   0  10   0   0 
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   69  66  72  67 /   0  10  20   0 

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63-KC