767 
FXUS63 KTOP 041732
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1232 PM CDT Sun Apr 4 2021

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Sun Apr 4 2021

Minor ridging continues across the Plains this morning as a mid 
level trough moves across the Pacific. Surface analysis at 07Z had a 
weak surface trough extending from a low over southern Colorado 
northeast into central Nebraska. Nighttime microphysics satellite 
still showing a few fires across northeast and east central Kansas. 

Today and tonight, the surface trough will drift east southeast into 
northwest Kansas with the mid level ridge remaining in place. Warm 
advection expected today and mixing up to 875mb will yield highs in 
the mid 80s across much of the area with upper 70s in far east 
central Kansas. Tonight some elevated instability develops as well 
as some weak energy moving across southern Nebraska may develop a 
few showers and storms toward midnight and through the overnight 
hours. Most activity looks to remain to the north of the forecast 
area save far north central Kansas where a few storms could affect 
the area and have introduced some low pops after midnight. Lows 
tonight will be mild with temperatures in the mid 50s.

Monday and Tuesday a mid level low is forecast to move across the 
Rockies and into the Plains. A few showers and thunderstorms will be 
possible Monday night within the low level jet axis where focus for 
convection will be along an 850mb boundary in southern Nebraska. 
Highs once again on Monday will be in the 80s with lows in the mid 
to upper 50s.

Tuesday night, the models are in agreement with the mid level low 
moving out into the plains. Steep lapse rates, instability, 
isentropic lift and increasing UVV in the left exit region of the 
upper jet across southeast Kansas will lead to a cluster of showers 
and thunderstorms developing during the evening and overnight. A few 
of the storms may be severe with damaging winds and hail the main 
hazards. 

Showers and a few storms will be possible on Wednesday as the upper 
low moves across eastern Kansas with a chance for showers within the 
deformation axis of the mid level low Wednesday night into Thursday 
morning. A mid level ridge will build across the Plains in the wake 
of the low while another trough moves across western Canada and the 
northwest. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sun Apr 4 2021

VFR conditions and south to southwest winds will continue throughout 
the period. These winds will be stronger this afternoon and again by 
late tomorrow morning, at 13-17 kts with gusts up to around 25 kts. 
Overnight winds will weaken to around 10 kts. Could see some 
marginal LLWS overnight as well, particularly at KTOP where
surface winds may weaken a bit further.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Sun Apr 4 2021

Very high rangeland fire danger is expected this afternoon mainly 
for areas northwest of an Emporia to Topeka to Hiawatha line. Where 
afternoon minimum relative humidity of 23 to 29 percent is expected 
and fuels will burn efficiently. South winds increase to the 15-20 
mph range this afternoon with gusts up to 30 mph possible. The winds 
are expected to decrease early this evening and RH will quickly 
recover to over 40 percent.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...53
AVIATION...Reese
FIRE WEATHER...53