060 
FXUS62 KILM 041139
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
738 AM EDT Sun Apr 4 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather with temperatures warming to above normal can be
expected in the upcoming week. An approaching frontal system
will bring rain chances Friday into early next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...KLTX radar sampling SW wind 30-35 kt at
1000 feet early this morning, which is inhibiting temperature 
falls, some spots even warming a degree or two. The wind uptick 
is occurring as a high pressure center drifts SSE, presently 
situated across southern Georgia and the South Carolina coast. 
As a result the frost threat appears limited but may still be 
seen in protected cold spots and cold air drainage areas 
adjacent to damper river basins.

One headline this period might read 'Spring Warm Up on the Way' as 
maximum sunshine minutes, and a downsloping wind component boost 
afternoon highs, in many cases above the average of temperature 
guidance, so from historical events, the upper end of the guidance 
will likely win-out the next couple days. So not shocking if a few 
inland spots check with 80 degrees Monday afternoon, and a 
strengthening sea breeze circulation will be seen this period. 


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...Very quiet
conditions through the mid week period with modest ridging 
building across the Tennessee Valley as a system gets organized 
in the Central Plains. A weak surface trough or two may traverse
the area via the position of the ridge but will have little to 
impact on conditions. Lows will be in the lower 50s or so both 
mornings with highs in around 80 to the lower 80s with the 
warmer readings Wednesday. 


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...Some uptick in activity 
is noted in the extended as the system mentioned in the short 
term section in the Central Plains shifts eastward. Some usual 
guidance disagreement mainly on timing issues as the April ridge
works the system over somewhat. Maintained the chance pops from
Thursday through Saturday with the highest values Friday. A 
general downward trend in temperatures remains via the moisture 
and the possibility of an eventual frontal passage. 


&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Clear skies and light W to SW winds through the period as high 
pressure sinks to our south and west. 

Extended Outlook...VFR conditions through the mid-week period, 
with shallow patches of early mist and fog.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Monday: Subsiding NE waves, but increasing W wind-waves this
period, as the pressure gradient increase between high pressure
to the south and lower pressure north. As a result, mariners 
should expect W gusts 20 kt or better tonight through early 
Monday, before winds ease a bit. Notable higher seas will be 
seen offshore compared to inshore, with a shore-wise flow along 
Brunswick county inshore waters. An advisory for wind gusts 
cannot be ruled out, but too marginal right now, small vessels 
should use caution. The atmosphere is dry so good visibility and
no TSTMs.

Monday Night through Thursday: Quiet conditions for the public
part of the forecast usually coincides with tame conditions for
the marine community and this week will be no exception. A 
southwest flow will be in place for most of the time with the 
strongest winds of 15-20 knots occurring late Tuesday. Otherwise
a range of 10-15 knots will suffice. Significant seas will be 
very manageable with 1-3 feet.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MBB