399 
FXUS64 KLCH 041125
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
625 AM CDT Sun Apr 4 2021

.DISCUSSION...
For 04/04/2021 12Z TAF Issuance.

&&

.AVIATION...
Some mid level clouds noted across the region around 8-12 kft. 
Expect some amount of mid level moisture and clouds to remain 
through the day. Some lower daytime CU likely develop as well, but
CIGS through the TAF period will remain VFR. Calm to light E 
winds this morning shift more SE through the day, becoming light 
again by Sunday evening. A bit more low level moisture overnight 
Sunday into Monday, and with light winds and good radiational 
cooling, could see some patchy VIS reductions... with low 
confidence and guidance pretty underwhelming, opted not to 
include any mention in this TAF package.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 411 AM CDT Sun Apr 4 2021/ 

DISCUSSION...
Generally quiet across the forecast area overnight, though there
are still some lingering light showers across the coastal
Atchafalaya. These should continue to push off toward the east in
tandem with a weak shortwave trof traversing the northern Gulf.
Otherwise, persistent mid level cloud cover has helped buoy
temperatures overnight, especially across parts of central/south
central LA. These clouds are forecast to become more scattered by
this afternoon, though there is another weak shortwave trof
traversing central TX that looks to keep cloudiness a little more
persistent across SE TX, where a stray shower or two also cannot 
be ruled out. Still, enough sunshine is expected to help 
temperatures warm up into the lower to mid 70s.

Benign weather is expected to continue tonight and into Monday,
with weak ridging aloft slowly pushing off to the east atop an
onshore flow around SFC high pressure settling into the southeast
US. Gradually warming temperatures and rising dewpoints are 
expected, with a more notable increase arriving TUE as the
depth/magnitude of southerly flow increases downstream of a more
robust upper trof translating through the Intermountain West into
the western High Plains. There is an areawide slight chance of 
mainly diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms TUE, with better
rain chances expected WED into THU as the upper trof slowing 
works across the Plains and into the Mid/Upper MS River Valley, 
dragging a weak CDFNT toward the area. While the SFC front looks 
like it will stall to the NW, enough MSTR pooling ahead of the 
boundary and lift associated with the upper trof will result in a 
decent chance of showers and thunderstorms, though better lift 
will reside to our north. 

Divergence in the global models increases THU night and beyond, 
with the progressive GFS sending the CDFNT through the area by FRI
morning, while the ECMWF and CMC keep the boundary meandering
around though SAT. Leaned more toward the latter two solutions and
kept some PoPs in the forecast FRi and SAT, with dry weather for
SUN.

13

$&

MARINE...
High pressure will settle over the southeast states through the
middle of next week. Light to occasionally moderate southerly 
winds will prevail.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  74  50  79  56 /   0   0   0   0 
LCH  74  55  77  61 /   0   0   0   0 
LFT  74  54  77  59 /   0   0   0  10 
BPT  74  57  77  62 /  10   0   0   0 

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$


AVIATION...50