151 
FXUS64 KOUN 041013
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
513 AM CDT Sun Apr 4 2021

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 211 AM CDT Sun Apr 4 2021

Weak upper wave will traverse south Texas today as low level 
southerly flow continues. These winds will bring increasing moisture 
and stratus northward across much of the area later this morning. 
This cloud cover will likely linger across areas along and south of 
I-44 through much of the day. Will keep slightly cooler temperatures 
in these areas for today, but everyone is still expected to warm 
into the 70s with near 80 degrees along the Kansas border.

South winds continue tonight and with higher dewpoints, temperatures 
will remain mild overnight with lows only dropping into the middle 
50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 211 AM CDT Sun Apr 4 2021

More substantial upper trough moves into Pacific northwest on Monday 
with increasing mid-level flow into the central Conus. As this 
occurs, pressure falls throughout the High Plains will result in 
tighter pressure gradient and increasing south winds. Veered low 
level flow will also bring in warmer air from the west resulting in 
even warmer temperatures early this week. By Tuesday, much of the 
area will climb into the 80s with 90 degrees not out of the question 
across western north Texas. Both days will see elevated fire weather 
across parts of western Oklahoma and western north Texas.

A lead wave will rotate around the base of the approaching larger 
trough and will impinge on a developing dryline that is progged to 
be near the western border of Oklahoma Tuesday afternoon. However 
airmass to the east of the dryline is expected to remain capped 
precluding the development of any thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon. 

Main upper wave will move through the central and southern Plains 
Tuesday night into early Wednesday along with associated surface 
cold front. This front will push quickly southeast across Oklahoma 
and western north Texas Wednesday morning, a bit faster than 
previous model runs. Moisture will be quickly shunted eastward, 
keeping precip chances across a majority of the area to a minimum. 
Will maintain some low pops, mainly along and east of I-35 Tuesday 
night and Wednesday. One other interesting trend has been that the 
models have trended farther south with upper wave and this brings 
the potential for the possibility of some wrap-around precip that 
may impact northern Oklahoma late Wednesday into Wednesday night, 
for now will leave this period dry, but will need to monitor trends. 
Gusty west to northwest winds will also accompany the front, which 
could result in a period of elevated fire weather conditions. 
However, cooler low level thermal field may actually result in 
falling temperatures across parts of the area by Wednesday 
afternoon. 

Slightly cooler temperatures will follow the front for the end of 
the week into the following weekend. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 513 AM CDT Sun Apr 4 2021

Little changes will be needed for the new set of TAFs. Latest 
satellite nighttime microphysics RGB imagery shows stratus 
gradually building northward from Texas into Oklahoma. Most METAR 
sites have been VFR so far, but guidance suggests at least a brief
period of MVFR through the morning before a slight rise in 
ceilings takes conditions back to VFR. VFR is likely to continue 
through the end of the TAF period. The typical diurnal cycle of 
southerly winds are expected, with minor 20-30 degree variations 
tied to mixing/decoupling, and speeds/gustiness peaking during the
warmest part of the day. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  75  55  78  60 /   0   0   0   0 
Hobart OK         77  55  81  59 /   0   0   0   0 
Wichita Falls TX  76  55  81  60 /   0   0   0   0 
Gage OK           81  54  81  58 /   0   0   0   0 
Ponca City OK     78  55  79  60 /   0   0   0  10 
Durant OK         72  55  79  60 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...12