006 
FXUS62 KGSP 040626
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
226 AM EDT Sun Apr 4 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry high pressure system will persist across the southeastern United 
States through the middle of next week, with gradually warming 
temperatures. Shower and thunderstorm chances return late next week 
ahead of a low pressure system, and associated cold front, 
approaching from the west.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Strong hipres and upper level subsidence will continue to dominate 
the pattern today and tonight. Periods of passing Ci are likely 
today, but otherwise moisture levels thru the column will remain 
very low. Temps are dropping off efficiently in low winds this 
morning and the frost advisory area still looks good. The sfc high 
center will push south of the FA this afternoon and the flow within 
the BL will become more w/ly which will add a downslope warming 
component to temps this afternoon and will expect highs a pleasant 
cat or so abv normal. With the warmer temps and meager td recovery, 
RH values will drop to 20-25% across the FA and the Fire Danger 
Statement across NE GA will be continued. The SC/NC zones will also 
become quite dry, however, moderate winds/gusts are generally 
required by forestry officials for an FDS issuance in these states. 
Mins will not be as cold tonight as has been the case the past few 
mornings as the overall airmass modifies warmer. Lows are expected 
right armd seasonal levels, which will be above any frost/freeze 
concerns.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 am EDT Sunday: Deep-layer northwesterly flow will develop 
aloft during the early part of the week as a broad, flat ridge sets 
up over the central CONUS. Surface high pressure and rebounding 
thicknesses over the southeast will permit slightly warmer than 
climo temperatures to return Monday through Tuesday. Lowering 
afternoon relative humidity values will persist with diurnal mixing, 
but with a gradual recovery of RH values through Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 200 am EDT Sunday: Heights will rise over the southeastern 
U.S. on Wednesday downstream of strongly falling heights from the 
Rockies to the central and southern plains. A modest increase in 
clouds is likely from the west on Wednesday, especially over the 
southern Appalachians, but with only very limited chances of late 
day mountain showers returning from the west by evening. Continued 
warm advection will permit Wednesday afternoon maxes to climb into 
the lower 80s in many locations east of the mountains.

Reasonably good medium range model consensus exists on deeper pre-
frontal moisture arriving from the west by Thursday as a Gulf 
moisture tap develops east of the stacked central CONUS low-pressure 
system. Surface-based instability may accompany the moisture return, 
at least enough to mention the thunder potential for PM Thursday 
most areas. However, severe thunderstorm potential looks more 
limited with the parent upper low spinning so far to the northwest.

Less confidence on sensible weather then exists for Friday and 
Saturday as the associated cold front lays over into the region from 
the west and possibly stalls in the vicinity. A quick return to 
southwesterly flow at low levels may mean resurgent or persistent 
moisture into next weekend, so will maintain above climo PoPs, with 
modest diurnal thunder chances and slightly above climo temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conds with passing Ci will prevail thru 
the TAF period. Strong and deeply dry hipres will dominate the 
pattern. The high center will shift south thru the day and sw/ly 
winds will become a little more w/ly with little gust potential. At 
KCLT...expect winds to continue veering thru the latter period and 
becoming nw/ly aft 08z.    

Outlook: VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the middle 
of next week. Chances for showers, restrictions, and perhaps 
thunderstorms increase Thursday.

Confidence Table...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z 
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at
the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Critical RH levels in the 20-25% range are expected today as we 
remain under a persistent dry and warm airmass. Thus, a Fire Danger 
Statement remains in effect for northeast GA this afternoon.
Surface winds will continue to be weak sw/ly to w/ly, although 
the mountains could see occasional 15-20 mph gusts during the 
afternoon.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Fire Danger Statement from noon EDT today through this evening 
     for GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
     Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for GAZ018-026-028-
     029.
NC...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NCZ068>072-082-
     508-510.
SC...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for SCZ004>014-019.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...SBK
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...SBK
FIRE WEATHER...SBK