970 
FXUS61 KBUF 040616
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
216 AM EDT Sun Apr 4 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
We can expect gradual day to day warming through much of the 
upcoming week with very little in the way of measurable 
precipitation. The next real opportunity for widespread showers will 
come late in the week when a complex weather system will move 
through the Great Lakes region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Radar showing the remnants of a broken line of decaying showers 
southeast and east of Lake Ontario early this morning. A few 
sprinkles will be possible over the next few hours with the remains 
of this area of showers, but it is mostly just causing weak 
reflectivity returns from the slightly more saturated mid-levels. A 
weak area of low pressure currently over the western end of Lake 
Ontario and the Niagara Peninsula will track east and dissipate into 
a trough over New England this morning. 

Ridging over the nations mid section will expand across the Upper 
Great Lakes today and tonight...promoting fair dry weather for our 
forecast area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
After a dry day Monday a warm front embedded within northwest flow 
will nudge towards our region from the Central Great Lakes. Showers 
along this front may clip the Southern Tier Monday Night. Tuesday 
will feature a warming airmass behind this warm front, though 
another shortwave within a still northwest flow may yield additional 
rain showers...mainly across WNY later Tuesday and into Tuesday 
Night. Instability axis will remain well to our south and 
west...thus no thunder expected.  

Temperatures will average above normal...with highs Tuesday reaching 
the lower 60s across WNY, and mid 50s east of Lake Ontario.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A closed upper level low will slowly spin east and northward this 
period...from the Central Plains Wednesday to areas east and north 
by the periods end. Model guidance spread increases as we go along 
in time with the track of this low...with the ECMWF/ and its 
ensembles keeping a southerly track, near the Ohio Valley by 
Saturday, while the 12Z GFS/GEFS takes this closed low towards 
southern Canada/James Bay by Saturday. 

Wednesday will feature the lowest chances for rain showers...but by 
Thursday and Friday chances for showers will rapidly increase as 
this closed low tracks closer to our region. The 12Z GEFS plumes 
also support later Thursday and into Friday as the time period most 
likely for rain showers. 

Mild, above normal temperature airmass will remain across our region 
ahead of this closed low through Friday.  

Cooler air associated with this upper level low will likely be near 
our region by Saturday. Cooler temperatures, though still above 
normal, with chances for rain showers within cold air advection will 
start the new weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
While VFR conditions will be in place for most areas during this 
period...there will be several hours of MVFR cigs east of Lake 
Ontario (KART and KGTB) this morning (through 10z).  

A weak area of low pressure will track across the region and
light, south-southeast winds will become northwest this morning.

Today, VFR conditions with high pressure to the south and clearing 
skies from west to east through the morning. 

Tonight, VFR conditions continue. Some mid-level clouds will move 
into the WNY area late. 

Outlook...  

Monday through Wednesday...Mainly VFR.
Thursday...Mainly VFR with scattered showers.

&&

.MARINE...
A light to gentle breeze expected for the next few days, as 
high pressure over the East Coast maintains fairly quiet weather
through the middle of the coming week.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...HSK/RSH/SW
SHORT TERM...Thomas
LONG TERM...Thomas
AVIATION...HSK/RSH/SW
MARINE...SW