670 
FXUS65 KVEF 040313 AAA
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
813 PM PDT Sat Apr 3 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Unseasonably hot weather will continue across much of
the region through Monday before a low pressure system brings 
breezy to windy conditions to the area on Monday and Tuesday 
along with cooler temperatures.  
&&

.UPDATE...As expected, several record high temperatures were either 
tied or broken across the Mojave Desert today. Las Vegas tied its 
record with a high of 91. It also marks the first 90 degrees day or 
warm of 2021. An average, since records started in 1937 our first 90 
degree day is April 18, so a few weeks early. Very similar 
conditions are forecast tomorrow, however records are several 
degrees warmer so they will be tougher to tie or eclipse.

Trough moving into the northern Great Basin Monday will usher in a 
period of gusty southwest-west winds. A Fire Weather Watch for part 
of Lincoln County has already been issued. Also, looking at the need 
for wind headlines across the western Mojave Desert. No update 
needed this evening. 
&& 

.DISCUSSION...Tonight and Easter Sunday.

For the first weekend in April, seasonal high and low temperature
averages in Las Vegas are in the mid 70s and low 50s 
respectfully. Current forecast temperatures for both days are 
either at or near records with the high minimum record possibly 
lingering into Monday morning. Base on current 1 pm conditions, 
the temperature in Las Vegas continues to run 5 degrees warmer 
than yesterday which would, if trends hold, indicate a tied or 
broken record high today. The high record on Sunday is likely 
safe with the NBM probability at about a 20% chance of tying or 
breaking the record high of 94 degrees. Otherwise, expect some
afternoon breezes on Sunday with breezy to windy conditions in the
Western Mojave Desert. Skies will remain mostly clear through
Sunday morning with increasing high clouds later in the day. 

On Monday...

A low pressure system is forecast to move across the northern 
Great Basin Monday and Monday night bringing mainly wind concerns 
for our area. Current forecasts indicate a good chance of seeing 
advisory level winds in the Western Mojave Desert in the afternoon
and evening. No wind products are in effect but will likely be 
needed once timing of the strongest winds are determined. The
increasing winds will enhance fire concerns in Lincoln County NV 
as the elevated winds combine with low daytime humidity.
Currently, conditions are sub-critical but based on trends, could
be near critical to critical by Monday. For the remainder of the 
area, it is looking like a breezy to windy but sub-advisory level
kind of day. Southwest winds 15-25 mph with gusts 30-35 mph are
expected. High temperatures will again be unseasonably hot with 
an increasing southerly flow leading to deep layer mixing. 
Locations across our northern areas including northern Inyo County
and the southern Great basin will see temperatures roughly 3-5 
degrees cooler on Monday with less cooling expected across our 
central and southern areas.

Tuesday through Saturday...

Expect cooler conditions on Tuesday behind the cold front with the 
strongest north winds favoring the lower Colorado River Valley.
Temperatures are expected to be 6-10 degrees cooler than Monday
but still well above normal. Expect temperatures to warm a few
degrees on Wednesday and remain there through the end of the work
week. This will mean temperatures about 8-10 degrees above normal
Wed-Fri before slightly cooler conditions settle in for the
beginning of next weekend.

&&

.CLIMATE...

DAILY RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES

               SAT 4/3      SUN 4/4
Las Vegas, NV   91 (1961)*   94 (1961)
Bishop, CA      92 (1961)    86 (1960)
Barstow, CA     95 (1961)    99 (1961)
Needles, CA     99 (1961)*  104 (1961)
Kingman, AZ     88 (1961)*   91 (1961)
Death Valley   105 (1961)   104 (2000)

DAILY RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES

              SAT 4/3      SUN 4/4
Las Vegas, NV  62 (2007)*  63 (1989)*
Bishop, CA     50 (1940)   47 (1985)  
Barstow, CA    65 (1959)   63 (1972)
Needles, CA    67 (1959)   71 (2006)
Kingman, AZ    56 (1961)   54 (2006)*
Death Valley   72 (2018)   83 (1914)

*-Current forecast close to current record values.

&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Southwesterly winds will pick up 
between 8 and 10 kts, with isolated gusts 15-20 kts possible 
through around midnight. Winds will become light and diurnal once 
again through the remainder of the TAF period. No operationally 
significant cloud cover expected.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast 
California...Breezy southwest winds will pick up with isolated 
gusts to 15 kts expected through midnight. Winds will become light
and variable once again through the remainder of the TAF period. 
The exception is KDAG, where gusty westerly winds will continue, 
peaking Sunday afternoon with gusts around 30 kts possible. No 
operationally significant cloud cover expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A low pressure system moving across northern 
Nevada on Monday will bring increasing southwest to west winds to 
the southern Great Basin and parts of the Mojave Desert and 
northwest Arizona. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for zone 
461 to highlight enhanced fire concerns in Lincoln County on 
Monday. Possible wind gusts over 35 mph and relative humidity 
values near 10 percent could elevate conditions to near critical.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to 
report any significant weather or impacts according to standard 
operating procedures.

$$

UPDATE...Pierce
DISCUSSION/FIRE WEATHER...Salmen
AVIATION...Boucher

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