568 
FXUS63 KABR 040311 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1011 PM CDT Sat Apr 3 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1010 PM CDT Sat Apr 3 2021

Dropped temps a bit over the James valley, otherwise forecast is
on track.  

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Sat Apr 3 2021

Red flag conditions being met across much of the warning area 
from the James Valley and west this afternoon. Temperatures were in 
the 70s with rhs around 15 percent or less and south winds gusting 
to 20 to 30 mph. Therefore, will continue with the warning into the 
evening hours as temperatures cool, rhs increase, and the winds 
subside. Otherwise, for tonight and Sunday, a surface low pressure 
area in northwest nd will move east into northern MN by Sunday 
morning. Behind this will be a front that will push south across our 
cwa into Sunday morning. With a deep dry atmosphere, don't expect 
any weather with it except for a wind shift. Surface high pressure 
will push east behind this front into Sunday. Thus, expect winds to 
become northeast and east through tonight into Sunday morning. On 
Sunday, the winds will slowly turn to the southeast through the day 
and increase. Despite temperatures rising into the mid 70s to the 
mid 80s and rhs falling to around 15 to 20 percent, the conditions 
are not expected to reach red flag for most of the cwa due to the 
wind speeds expected to hold below 25 mph for the day. A xsct across 
the cwa then shows high level moisture making it into the cwa Sunday 
night with a surface low pressure area moving in from the west along 
with winds generally under 10 mph. Mild overnight lows are expected 
in the 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Sat Apr 3 2021

Zonal flow looks to characterize much of the extended period, 
bringing more seasonable (but still above average) temperatures and 
precipitation chances from time to time. On Monday, temperatures 
will remain very mild with abnormally mild 850mb air (10 to 14+ C) 
overhead/mixing down during the afternoon. Highs are most likely to 
top out in the 70s, though a cold front will be working through the 
area, and an earlier passage would lead to slightly cooler than 
currently advertised highs generally along/west of the James Valley. 
Min RH values in the 20 to 40% range combined with gusty north winds 
during the afternoon (particularly behind the cold front) should 
lead to elevated fire danger. By the early evening, enough 
instability may have developed across west central Minnesota for an 
isolated thunderstorm or two to form as the front passes through. 

A better chance for rainfall takes shape across the area Tuesday 
morning through Wednesday night as an area of low pressure develops 
near the CO/NE/KS border and then tracks east-northeast through 
Iowa. Cooler temperatures and breezy northeasterly winds are 
anticipated through this period, though some uncertainty remains on 
just how much precipitation will fall. Will remain cautiously 
optimistic for measurable precipitation across the whole CWA at this 
time. Low temperatures Tuesday morning and overnight into Wednesday 
morning will drop into the mid to upper 30s, so there is potential 
for some snow to mix in at times as well.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 609 PM CDT Sat Apr 3 2021

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR skies/vsbys are expected through tonight regionwide. The gusty
winds this evening will subside some as the sun sets.  


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...Mohr
LONG TERM...Lueck
AVIATION...TDK