384 
FXUS64 KTSA 032321
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
621 PM CDT Sat Apr 3 2021

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions will prevail through the period, with a stratocu 
deck likely spreading northward across eastern OK after 12z 
Sunday. Ceilings should remain above 3000 feet. Will also see 
locally reduced visibility in the 4-6SM range early this evening 
with numerous fires ongoing.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 150 PM CDT Sat Apr 3 2021/ 

DISCUSSION...
Mid level heights will continue to rise this afternoon and 
evening as a broad mid level ridge moves in allowing for continued
dry and warm conditions. This ridge will weaken some on Monday in
response to an upper level storm expected to traverse the central
plains Tuesday into Wednesday which will bring us chances for 
some showers and storms by mid week with a few severe storms 
possible Wednesday. Past Wednesday model spread increases greatly 
with overall confidence in the forecast decreasing.

Fire weather will be the main concern for the next several days 
as dry, windy, and warm conditions prevail through at least the 
early part of the upcoming work week. Moisture return is underway 
across the area this afternoon with more noticeable values across 
our western tier of counties and especially as you go further 
westward into central Oklahoma where dew points are well into the 
40s to near 50 along the Red River. The increase in moisture today
along with slightly lower wind speeds thanks to a small 
relaxation of the surface pressure gradient have all allowed for 
slightly lower fire weather conditions as compared to yesterday 
but spread rates of Enhanced to border line Near Critical are 
likely being observed at this time, mainly across portions of 
northeast Oklahoma. Conditions will improve quickly tonight as 
winds decrease and slow but steady moisture return continues. 

Moisture return will become more prominent through the day Sunday
with dew points largely surging into the 50s by the afternoon. 
With winds largely expected to be about the same as today, the 
fire weather threat will decrease some but will continue to be 
locally elevated across parts of northeast Oklahoma.

Monday and Tuesday will see winds and fire weather concerns 
increase as the next storm system approaches. Despite dew points 
well into the 50s both days, temperatures are expected to be 
rather warm (generally in the mid to upper 70s) which will tend to
reduce RH values in the 40 to 50% range Monday with slightly 
higher minimum RH values for Tuesday. The main driving factor for 
elevated fire weather concerns will be the winds which are 
forecast to gust between 20 to 30mph Monday with 25 to near 40mph 
gusts expected Tuesday. An RFD will likely be needed both of these
days with spread rates in the near critical category for parts of
NE OK. 

Our focus then shifts to the shower/storm threat Tuesday evening 
into Wednesday. The majority of guidance is in fairly good 
agreement when it comes to the track of the upper level low with 
both the GFS and ECMWF deterministic models having the low moving 
across Kansas through mid week. This is a little further south 
than previous runs thus will likely reduce our highs a little bit 
through mid week with temps in the 80s looking less likely. With 
that said, the models are also in fairly good agreement with a 
Pacific front/dry line pushing through Oklahoma and Arkansas on 
Wednesday. With ample shear, instability, and forcing from this 
cold front, expect showers and thunderstorms to develop along the 
front Wednesday with a noticeable increase in coverage and 
intensity by Wednesday afternoon across the eastern half of the 
CWA. At least a few strong to severe storms seems very possible.

Thursday into the following weekend will likely be quiet as the
upper low continues to move east or northeast out of the region.
Thursday is also the day when confidence tanks due to a lack of
run to run consistency. Violin plots of high temperatures to end
the upcoming work week also support this idea with a fairly wide
range of temperatures possible. Opted to go with the warmer
guidance (NBM is leaning toward the warmer guidance as well) as
there is some indication that a small amount of mid level riding
in the wake of the upper storm system could allow for our warmer
temperatures to continue into next weekend.

Snider

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   50  76  56  78 /   0   0   0   0 
FSM   44  74  52  77 /   0   0   0   0 
MLC   51  73  54  77 /   0   0   0   0 
BVO   50  77  54  78 /   0   0   0   0 
FYV   44  73  49  74 /   0   0   0   0 
BYV   44  73  51  74 /   0   0   0   0 
MKO   47  73  54  76 /   0   0   0   0 
MIO   47  74  53  75 /   0   0   0   0 
F10   50  75  54  78 /   0   0   0   0 
HHW   52  71  52  76 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$


AVIATION.....14