National Weather Service Raw Text Product

055 
FXUS63 KOAX 030759
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
259 AM CDT Sat Apr 3 2021

...Updated Forecast Discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 AM CDT Sat Apr 3 2021

Saturday

Temperatures will climb a few degrees higher today, compared to 
yesterday, as an upper ridge continues to build across the region. 
High temps will likely top out in the mid to upper 70s today under 
sunny skies. RH will remain low as temperatures climb this 
afternoon, but thankfully lighter winds should help mitigate the 
fire weather threat.  That being said, most of the forecast area 
will still be under high to very high fire danger today, given our 
dry fuel conditions.  

Sunday through Sunday Night

A surface low will evolve over western SD and NE by Sunday evening, 
with the pressure gradient tightening in advance of this 
disturbance.  Southwesterly winds will become breezy once again, 
with speeds sustained at 10-15 kts in the afternoon, and gusts up
to 20-25 kts expected. While these wind speeds may support fire 
weather headlines, the extent of our dryness will be the wild 
card. There is some hint that RH could drop down to 20-30 percent
over parts of northeast NE, with Min RH generally 30-40 percent 
elsewhere. Given the recent trend of an over abundance of dry air 
across the region recently, it is possible for those values to 
drop lower. Expect high to very high fire danger on Sunday at a 
minimum, with the potential for red flag conditions being closely 
monitored. 

A weak disturbance could help spark a few storms along a dryline 
Sunday night into early Monday morning. Forecast soundings indicate 
steep midlevel lapse rates from 7.5-8.5 C/km and 20-30 kts of 0-6 km 
bulk shear.  CAPE is fairly modest, but not non-existent.  While 
moisture may be limited, given these factors, there is some 
potential for any storms that do develop to become strong.  

Monday and Tuesday

Southerly low level flow will attempt to pull more moisture into 
eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa Monday, as temperatures push 
into the lower 80s. A cold front will approach the region Monday, 
and pass through the forecast area Monday night/Tuesday morning. 
Lingering showers/storms will diminish Monday morning, before 
redeveloping in the vicinity of the front Monday evening through 
Monday night.  

Our more active weather pattern continues Tuesday as a low pressure 
system develops out of the Rockies. Showers and thunderstorms will 
be possible ahead of the low Tuesday morning, with precipitation 
chances continuing into Tuesday evening/Tuesday night as the 
associated cold front moves through the region. Spotty precipitation 
coverage early on Tuesday would give us a better chance for robust 
convection with the frontal passage Tuesday evening, however we 
still have a couple of days before those finer details become 
more apparent. 

Wednesday through Friday

A break in precipitation could come Wednesday as the upper low and 
it's surface reflection pull a dry slot through the region. However, 
wrap-around precip will be possible, along with colder and windier 
conditions, on the backside of the low Wednesday night through 
Thursday. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1127 PM CDT Fri Apr 2 2021

VFR criteria will prevail for the TAF period. Surface winds have
been slow to diminish with 30 kt winds still be observed across
the area. Winds are expected to drop below 10 kts within the next
couple of hours. Low level wind shear (LLWS) meeting criteria
level is expected to be in place until 11Z. 

A weak front is beginning to move into northeast Nebraska. This
front will cause winds to rotate from the southwest to the north.
Winds behind the front are expected to between 5 to 10 kts.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...Fajman