808 
FXUS63 KMPX 022208
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
508 PM CDT Fri Apr 2 2021

.UPDATE...For 00Z Aviation discussion below

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Fri Apr 2 2021

Main concern for the short term period is the Red Flag Warning 
across all of our Minnesota counties until 01Z and elevated fire 
weather conditions over Wisconsin. 

A strong southerly flow across the region this afternoon as high 
pressure moves east into the Ohio River valley region while a weak 
trough of low pressure moves across the Dakotas. Southerly winds 
have been between 20-25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. Current 
observations reflect the dry airmass in place with RH values between 
15 to 25 percent across most of our MN counties. Deep boundary layer 
mixing will prevent surface moisture from recovering this afternoon. 
lows drop into the upper 30s/lower 40s. 

Overnight a weak frontal boundary will pass through dry, and the 
main weather impact will only be a wind shift to the northwest for 
Saturday. Temperatures still reach into the upper 60s and lower 70s 
Saturday afternoon. Once again, RH values will plummet between 20 to 
30 percent tomorrow afternoon. I expect the moisture return to be 
slower than guidance so I blended in NBM 10th percentile to lower 
Tds to keep RH values lower. Light winds should limit fire weather 
concerns. So get out and enjoy the mild and dry weather.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Fri Apr 2 2021

Main weather concerns this period are shower and thunderstorm 
chances Sunday night and Monday, then the potential for a more 
prolonged rain event Tuesday night into Thursday. Obviously, if we 
are talking rain chances, fire weather concerns will ease some next 
week.

From a large scale perspective, not much is expected to change from 
what we've seen much of the last month. Largely split flow with a 
more active southern stream. However, a slow moving close low will 
trudge across central North America mid-week, which will be the 
source for our more prolonged precip event. 

We'll start the long term with beautiful weather for Sunday, with 
highs well into the 70s, or some 20 degrees above normal. Once 
again, pushed highs Sunday toward the warmer half of guidance, 
though we'll have a stalled out boundary over the state, so was 
hesitant to go too warm given cloud cover potential. 

Sunday night and Monday comes our first chance of precip. Sunday 
night is a threat for elevated thunderstorms as a LLJ overspreads a 
developing warm front. Models still aren't convinced we'll see much 
activity with this setup, though there is a favoring for precip on 
the nose of the LLJ from southeast MN toward central WI. Then on 
Monday, a cold front sweeps across the area. Still a lot of spread 
with how quickly it moves through, but if it is slow enough, like 
the ECMWF, we could see showers and thunderstorms Monday 
afternoon/evening along the front over eastern MN/western WI. If 
it's faster, like the GFS, we won't see much, if anything. Given the 
uncertainty, stayed with 30s or less PoPs from the NBM.

After this front, attention turns to a closed low that will move 
across the central CONUS during the middle of next week. Still quite 
a bit of spread in the models with how this will track, with the GFS 
showing a more progressive low that slides across the Missouri Valley 
and into the Tennessee Valley by Friday. The ECMWF/Canadian are 
slower with the progression of the low and have it slowly drifting 
across MN Thursday before getting absorbed into the northern stream 
over southern Canada on Friday. Which given the spread did knock 
back PoPs, especially Tuesday into Tuesday night. It still looks 
like most will see rain mid-week, but confidence in seeing rain in 
any one 6 hour period is much lower, hence the prolonged period of 
30 pops we have. QPF still looks promising as well, with a 
widespread 1-2" of rain looking possible. Final change for next week 
is the NBM cut back highs considerably for Tuesday-Thursday given 
expected cloud cover at the very least, though they're still running 
a bit above normal, just not in the 10-20 degree range anymore.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 508 PM CDT Fri Apr 2 2021

A front will pass across the area dry overnight, with only a mere 
increase in high clouds along with a wind shift. Gusty southerly 
winds will ease during the first couple hours of the TAF period, and 
gradually veer to the north/northwest overnight with the frontal
passage.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sun...VFR. Wind S 10G20 kts.
Mon...VFR with MVFR/-SHRA possible. Wind S at 10-15 kts.
Tue...VFR/MVFR with -SHRA possible. Wind NE at 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for Anoka-Benton-Blue 
     Earth-Brown-Carver-Chippewa-Chisago-Dakota-Douglas-Faribault-
     Freeborn-Goodhue-Hennepin-Isanti-Kanabec-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui 
     Parle-Le Sueur-Martin-McLeod-Meeker-Mille Lacs-Morrison-
     Nicollet-Pope-Ramsey-Redwood-Renville-Rice-Scott-Sherburne-
     Sibley-Stearns-Steele-Stevens-Swift-Todd-Waseca-Washington-
     Watonwan-Wright-Yellow Medicine.

WI...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BPH
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...LS