916 
FXUS64 KMAF 302303
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
603 PM CDT Tue Mar 30 2021

.DISCUSSION...

See 00Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

KMAF radar shows the front just south of KMAF, but expect the main
push to begin ~03Z.  Once fropa hits, wind direction will remain
steady next 24 hours, and become gusty.  A few high clouds are
anticipated.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 224 PM CDT Tue Mar 30 2021/ 

DISCUSSION...
Broad upper trough swinging across the Rockies today will move onto 
the plains tonight.  As it moves east Wednesday high pressure ridge 
over the Western US will start to build into the area.  On Thursday 
the ridge axis will be located over the Rockies with a cut off low 
over Baja that moves into AZ Friday.  This low will move over the 
area Saturday.  A flat ridge returns to the region as the next upper 
trough moves over the NW US Sunday.

A High Wind Warning remains in effect for the Guadalupe and Delaware 
Mountains today into this evening... and a High Wind Warning for GDP 
late tonight and Wednesday morning as a cold front gets channeled 
through the pass. Guidance hinting at a second surge of NE wind at 
GDP Wednesday night that could approach high wind again... bumped 
speeds.

Currently have mid clouds ahead of the trough streaming up form 
Mexico and across the southern and eastern part of the area.  These 
clouds should shift east tonight.  A cold front located along a MAF 
to Jal line at 19z will push through most of the area overnight. 
Wednesday morning will start with a N wind that veers around to the 
E by afternoon as the surface ridge slides east.  S wind returns 
Thursday.

Temps will be much cooler Wednesday with highs in the 60s for most 
of the region with a few 70s along the Rio Grande.  Below normal 
temperatures continue Thursday and Friday with readings warming back 
to normal on Saturday. By Monday should see highs in the 80s with 
some 90s for the usual warmer locations.

The atmosphere remains very dry as the drought continues... no rain 
expected for the coming week.

FIRE WEATHER...
Near critical to critical fire wx conditions have materialized 
across western portions of the area this afternoon where a Red 
Flag Warning is currently in effect. RFTIs of 6-8 have been observed 
across the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains, Eddy County Plains, and 
near the I-10/20 split. A small wildfire was detected via GOES-16 
3.9 um channel in Eddy County not too long ago. Dry and windy 
conditions will continue through the afternoon, but further east a 
cold front and high clouds have mitigated fire wx concerns for now. 
As clouds continue to clear, there may be a few hours of elevated to 
near critical fire weather across the western Permian Basin and 
Trans Pecos before coming to an end after sunset. The cold front 
which is currently hung up across the northern Permian Basin will 
finally push through the region late tonight with gusty NE winds to 
follow. Fair recovery is expected behind the front. Relative 
humidity should remain above critical levels tomorrow afternoon, 
with the exception of the Big Bend region. In this region, breezy 
conditions and humidity values 10-15% could present a period of 
elevated fire weather. The rest of the forecast through this weekend 
will see a reduced fire wx threat due to both higher humidities and 
lighter wind speeds.  

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     40  61  36  63 /   0   0   0   0 
Carlsbad                       40  63  33  64 /   0   0   0  10 
Dryden                         50  70  43  67 /   0   0   0   0 
Fort Stockton                  44  62  39  65 /   0   0   0  10 
Guadalupe Pass                 37  57  36  56 /   0   0   0  10 
Hobbs                          35  59  31  63 /   0   0   0   0 
Marfa                          39  60  30  63 /   0   0   0  10 
Midland Intl Airport           41  62  36  64 /   0   0   0   0 
Odessa                         41  62  36  64 /   0   0   0   0 
Wink                           43  63  36  66 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Chavez Plains-
     Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe 
     Mountains.

     High Wind Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe 
     Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for 
     Andrews-Central Brewster County-Chinati Mountains-Crane-
     Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson 
     County-Ector-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe 
     and Delaware Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Midland-Pecos-
     Presidio Valley-Reeves County Plains-Upton-Van Horn and 
     Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe 
     Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

     High Wind Warning from 4 AM to 11 AM MDT Wednesday for Guadalupe 
     and Delaware Mountains.

&&

$$

44/89/44