628 
FXUS62 KFFC 300847
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
447 AM EDT Tue Mar 30 2021



.SHORT TERM /Today through Wednesday night/...

Main concerns in the short term period is threat for heavy rain/ 
flash flooding and strong/severe storms on Wed and Wed night.
 
Weak wave over southern GA and northern FL this morning will lift NE 
with broad SWly flow continuing through Wed in advance of 
approaching larger wave extending from the midwest to southern 
plains by 18Z Wed. Could see some -SHRA today over middle GA as weak 
wave scoots to our south. While warm/moist advection increases 
tonight, clouds and precip chance shift north then increase to the 
north and west as warm advection further increases Wednesday. 
Instability not quite sufficient for widespread TSRA this afternoon 
in middle GA but could see some elevated convection, added SChc TSRA 
to far southern counties today and north and west counties tonight. 
TSRA chances increase Wed afternoon and evening as MLCAPE increases 
to 1000-1500 J/kg based on HREF mean. Vertical shear somewhat weak 
however with 0-1km SRH 100-125 m2/s2 in warm sector just ahead of 
pre-frontal convection. Resulting STP values around 1-1.5. And just 
so we're clear, these values are nowhere near what we saw last 
Thursday night. Only small chances of damaging wind and hail Wed 
afternoon and evening. Tornadoes are not expected at this time but 
will continue to monitor.

Heavy rain looks likely for far north GA where minor flooding is 
still ongoing on some larger rivers. Up to 2 inches expected over 
far north GA thru Wed evening which could be enough to warrant 
flash flood watch if upward forecast trends continue. 

SNELSON


.LONG TERM /Thursday through Monday/...

The long term looks dry for north and central GA. A long wave trough 
moves off the Atlantic coast at the start of the period. This keeps 
us in a northwest flow aloft with a surface high centered over the 
southeast. A weak wave moves along the Gulf late in the weekend but 
looks like the moisture will stay south of our area. Expect freezing 
or near freezing temperatures Thursday night and Friday night. Have 
kept a mention of frost in the forecast for those times. 


41


&&


AVIATION...
06Z Update...

VFR conditions expected today with SCT200 thru 15Z over middle GA 
airports and 18Z at ATL metro airports and KAHN after which BKN040 
deck moves in from the south. Cigs will drop to MVFR after 02Z then 
IFR after 07Z with isolated -SHRA. Coverage not high enough to 
warrant PROB30 or TEMPO until after 11Z Wed when widespread -RA 
moves in from the west. Sfc winds will be E 5-10kts then SE 4-6kts 
after 01Z Wed then SSW 5-10kts after 11Z Wed.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...

Medium confidence on IFR likelihood and timing
High confidence on all other elements

SNELSON



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          72  59  75  39 /  10  40  70  70 
Atlanta         71  60  74  37 /  20  40  70  70 
Blairsville     68  55  67  31 /  10  80  90  70 
Cartersville    75  60  73  33 /  10  60  80  70 
Columbus        75  63  81  40 /  40  30  60  60 
Gainesville     70  58  72  38 /  10  60  80  70 
Macon           75  60  82  41 /  30  20  50  60 
Rome            77  60  71  36 /  10  70  90  70 
Peachtree City  72  60  77  36 /  20  30  70  70 
Vidalia         78  63  85  47 /  40  20  40  50 

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...SNELSON