385 
FXUS65 KABQ 131824 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1124 AM MST Sat Mar 13 2021

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
Scattered to numerous, strong to severe, thunderstorms will 
gradually exit to the east of east central and northeast NM during
early to mid afternoon. Meanwhile, a strong and broad low pressure 
system over the Four Corners will spread isolated to scattered rain 
showers, snow showers, and some thunderstorms to locations along and 
west of the central mountain chain this afternoon. A few inches of 
snow accumulation are expected in the northern and west central 
mountains today, with an inch or two at lower elevations along and 
west of the continental divide. Snow will continue in these areas 
tonight and Sunday with additional accumulations likely as the upper 
level low pressure system tracks eastward along the CO/NM border. 
Gusty southwest winds will shift out of the west as a Pacific cold 
front crosses today. Gusty winds should linger through tonight in 
many locations as the jet stream moves overhead, then surface winds 
will shift out of the northwest and become very strong on Sunday.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...327 AM MST Sat Mar 13 2021...
.SYNOPSIS...
Another active day is in store across the Land of Enchantment.
Showers and thunderstorms may develop this morning across the
northeast, with a few severe storms possible. Meanwhile, snow showers
will move into western New Mexico today and will spread eastward
along and behind a cold front. The cold front will also bring strong
westerly winds to much of the state. Gusts as high as 50 mph will be
possible across portions of eastern New Mexico. Even stronger winds
will impact much more of the state on Sunday with gusts up to 65 mph
possible. Snow will also persist across the Northern Mountains, and
through the weekend, up to a foot of snow is possible across the high
peaks. Quieter conditions are expected Monday, then another storm
system will bring more windy conditions to the state. Less active
weather is expected for the latter half of the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
The joys of spring weather. Rain, snow, high winds and thunderstorms
all at the same time. A busy weekend of weather is upon us. The slow
moving storm to our west will finally reach the Four Corners area 
this afternoon and slide across the NM/CO border tonight before 
lifting northeast Sunday. Rain showers and mountain snow showers will
become fairly widespread today, especially the north and west. 
Strong winds today will be focused in the east central and south 
central areas, with breezy to windy conditions just about everywhere 
else. Enough instability for thunderstorms today, mainly in the east.
It looks like severe storms will mainly be just over the TX state 
line today. Temperatures will be much cooler today except in the 
northeast. Mixed precipitation will turn to mostly snow tonight and 
winds will remain steady or even increase over the mountains. Strong 
to high winds over central and southern areas are expected Sunday 
while the precipitation continues across northern areas. Highs will 
be below normal, by 10 to 15 degrees in the west. See below for the 
various weather highlights issued, as there are many. 

LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)... 
The upper level low over southeast CO will finally begin to fill as 
it slowing shifts eastward into KS Sunday night. Wind speeds will 
lower Sunday evening, though some continued breeziness may keep 
temperatures from plummeting. Snow will also come to an end across 
the Northern Mountains Sunday night, and a brief break in the action 
is expected for Monday. Weak upper level ridging will shift over the 
state on Monday, allowing for temperatures to warm 5 to 10 degrees 
over Sunday's readings. Winds won't be as strong as Sunday, but 
breezy to windy conditions are still likely as mainly westerly flow 
aloft induces another lee side surface low over northeast NM. 

A quick moving upper level low will cross northern NM on Tuesday. 
Strong mixing combined with a deepening surface low over the 
OK/CO/NM border will yield yet another round of strong westerly 
winds during the afternoon. Gusts near 50 mph will be possible, 
especially along and east of the central mountain chain and south of 
I-40. The South Central Mountains may start blowing earlier given 700
mb wind speeds between 50 and 60kts as well as a favorable wind 
direction at KSRR. Less precipitation is expected with this system, 
and will mainly be confined to the Northern Mountains initially, but 
as the upper low shifts over the Panhandles, wrap around 
precipitation may impact northeast NM. The ECMWF remains the most
bullish with regards to wrap around precip in NE NM due to it's
projection of the upper low being farther south than other
operational models.

Wednesday through the remainder of the week will be quieter.
Wednesday will remain cool, but warmer temperatures will be on the
way Thursday and Friday with another round of weak ridging overhead.

CHJ/34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
There will be borderline critical fire weather conditions today 
across the east central plains, but with only near normal highs and 
low to moderate Haines we will not issue a RFW today. It will turn 
much cooler today with rain and mountain snow showers developing. 
Precipitation and winds will continue tonight and Sunday, with high 
winds south of I-40 Sunday. We get a brief break Monday only to have 
another storm system impact NM Tuesday with a similar track to the 
current storm. Critical fire weather conditions will be likely in 
much of the east Tuesday. Dry, milder and less wind the rest of next 
week.

CHJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening for the 
following zones... NMZ201>206.

High Wind Watch from 11 PM MST this evening through Sunday evening 
for the following zones... NMZ206>208-219>224-226-233-239>241.

Wind Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening for the following 
zones... NMZ223-226-233>240.

Winter Weather Advisory until midnight MDT Sunday night for the 
following zones... NMZ210-211-213-214-227.

&&

$$