109 
FXUS64 KMEG 130544 AAA
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1144 PM CST Fri Mar 12 2021

.UPDATE...
Updated for 06Z Aviation Forecast Discussion below. 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 845 PM CST Fri Mar 12 2021/ 

DISCUSSION...

Skies are cloudy across the Mid-South this evening with
temperatures ranging from the mid 50s to around 70 degrees. Cold
front is currently across north Mississippi. A few showers are
moving over northern sections of the Mid-South. Additional showers
are moving across western and northern sections of Arkansas and
this activity will move into the region overnight. Made some minor
adjustments to low temps for Saturday morning.

ARS

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 338 PM CST Fri Mar 12 2021/ 

DISCUSSION...

A weak cold front has moved south of I-40 in west Tennessee and 
is along I-40 in east Arkansas. This feature may sink a little 
farther south this afternoon, but will return north as a warm 
front late tonight in response to a deepening upper level low over
the Desert Southwest. Along and south of the front scattered 
showers have developed and are slowly moving off to the east. More
widespread rain has tracked out of northeast Arkansas, across the
Missouri Bootheel and along the Kentucky state line in west 
Tennessee. We should see an increase in showers north of the warm 
front tonight and a decrease in showers south of the front. 
Diffluent flow aloft will overspread the Midsouth tomorrow helping
to develop more widespread showers mainly along and north of the 
interstate 40 corridor. Isolated thunderstorms are possible, 
mainly during the afternoon Saturday. A ridge ahead of the upper 
level low should help suppress rain late Saturday night into 
Sunday, but as temperatures warm Sunday and the low shifts into 
the Plains showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop.

The Storm Prediction Center has a small area outlined near and 
South of Memphis for a Slight risk of severe thunderstorms with a 
Marginal risk across most of the remainder of the Midsouth. The 
low is expected to be weakening as it approaches making the 
development of severe storms questionable. Timing of the system, 
after sunset, will also minimize instability. However favorable 
veering of wind with height may be sufficient to support rotating 
updrafts resulting in the development of a few severe storms. 
Damaging wind appears to be the most likely threat but a brief 
tornado is possible. The environment farther east into north 
central and northeast Mississippi should be less favorable for 
severe thunderstorms. 
 
The Pacific airmass behind the front will not result in any
significant cool down. In fact, highs should remain in the low to
mid 70s Monday and Tuesday. We should be fairly dry Monday and
Tuesday as a transient, weak ridge shifts across the plains and
Mississippi River Valley.  

Wednesday another upper level low will move across the Central
Plains approaching the Mississippi River via north Missouri.
Another round of showers and thunderstorms may begin over the 
midsouth as early as Wednesday morning as another warm front 
lifts across the region followed by a line of storms along or 
just ahead of a stronger cold front. The Storm Prediction Center 
is not advertising the threat of any severe storms Wednesday or 
Wednesday night, probably because of lack of moisture, but it is 
certainly worth watching.

Cooler temperatures and dry conditions are expected for the end 
of the work week. Highs should be in the middle 50s to middle 
60s. Expect morning lows mainly in the middle 40s Thursday with 
mid 30s to low 40s Friday. 

AVIATION...
00Z TAFs

Complicated setup with an east-west cold front front draped 
through the MEM TRACON, just south of the terminal. KNQA radar 
VWP product shows the frontal surface depth near 2 kft. The front 
should continue to slowly move south this evening, with VFR
generally prevailing at all but JBR. Expect light drizzle to
develop with a strengthening low level jet/warm advection over 
the frontal surface. MVFR ceiling will likely accompany the 
drizzle, though confidence on timing isn't particularly high. 

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFs

East/west stationary front extended across north MS, north of TUP,
where VFR prevailed. To the north of the front, KNQA radar VWP
product showed southwesterly FL030 winds had increased from 15kt
to 35kt, which may support isolated showers, patchy drizzle and a
continuation of IFR ceilings overnight. 

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$