090 
FXUS64 KMOB 082326 AAA
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
526 PM CST Mon Mar 8 2021

.NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Tuesday night/...No updates needed
at this time. 
/16
&&

.AVIATION...
00Z issuance...VFR conditions expected through the forecast. Light 
east to southeasterly winds tonight will become a general 
southeasterly around 10 knots on Tuesday.
/16

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 329 PM CST Mon Mar 8 2021/ 

NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Tuesday/...An upper ridge will continue 
to build over the area through Tuesday. Meanwhile, a sfc ridge will
continue to shift eastward to the east coast on Tuesday. This will
allow sfc flow to become southeast during the day on Tuesday, allowing
sfc moisture to slowly begin to increase. However, the airmass will
remain very dry with precipitable water values below one half of an
inch through Tuesday. This will result in continued clear skies along
with a continued large swing in diurnal temperatures. Lows tonight
will range from the mid and upper 30s inland to mid and upper 40s
near the coast. Highs on Tuesday will climb rapidly, into the low
to to mid 70s inland to upper 60s near the coast. /13

SHORT TERM /Tuesday night Through Thursday night/...Dry and mild
conditions will prevail through the short term as an upper level
ridge builds across the Gulf of Mexico and northern Gulf Coast. 
Humidity levels will gradually increase through this time as a 
southerly wind flow develops due to surface high pressure moving 
east into the western Atlantic. Continued the recent forecast 
trend of going on the warm side of guidance for afternoon highs, 
which is close to what the statistical MAV/MEX is advertising. 
This results in highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s inland with 
low to mid 70s closer to the coast. Water temperatures are still 
cool, so a southerly flow will keep the immediate coast in the low
70s. The southerly winds will also help to moderate low 
temperatures to above normal levels. 34/JFB

EXTENDED TERM /Friday Through Monday/...Upper level ridging will
hold firm across the Gulf into the southeast states through much
of the weekend. In fact, the latest guidance continues to increase
upper heights into Saturday, with the ridging not weakening much
at all through Sunday. If this trend holds, this will delay our
next weather system and potential rain maker until at least
Monday as a highly amplified trough/closed low ejects east out of
the southwest states and southern Plains. While the latest
forecast still maintains a small rain chance on Sunday, it could
very well remain dry based on the aforementioned trends. Highs
will warm into the upper 70s and lower 80s except for immediate
coastal areas Friday and Saturday. Sunday could end up just as
warm if ridging holds firm. Lows will also remain above normal in
the mid to upper 50s to near 60 possibly in some locations. 
34/JFB

MARINE...Light to moderate easterly flow will become southeasterly
Tuesday into Wednesday and continue through the weekend. Seas will
gradually build through late week. /13

FIRE WEATHER...Humidity values have ranged from 15-20% across a 
large part of the area this afternoon, with the exception of some 
areas along and south of I-10. Humidity values will gradually 
moderate through the rest of the week due to a southerly wind 
becoming established. 34/JFB

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk from Tuesday morning through Friday 
     afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk from Tuesday morning through Friday 
     afternoon for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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