361 
FXUS63 KIND 021439
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
939 AM EST Tue Mar 2 2021

.UPDATE...
The NEAR TERM Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 310 AM EST Tue Mar 2 2021

Clear skies will prevail through this weekend amid strong surface
high pressure. Generally near-normal temperatures are expected 
this week...before southerly winds promote above normal readings 
for the Sunday-Monday period.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Today/...
Issued at 935 AM EST Tue Mar 2 2021

Satellite, surface observations, and 021200Z upper air suggest the
current forecast is in good shape. No significant changes planned
at this time. 

Previous discussion follows.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Today through Thursday Night/...
Issued at 305 AM EST Tue Mar 2 2021

Abundant sunshine will predominate as surface high pressure 
presides across Indiana through midweek. Zonal mid-level flow 
will transition to a more amplified pattern by the end of the 
period...however dry conditions will prevail for the region as a 
couple, rather small systems pass either well to our north or 
south. The weakening area of low pressure crossing southeastern 
Canada will drag a weak cold front across the CWA Wednesday 
evening...although this will produce no more than a few clouds. 
Ahead of this boundary, Wednesday will likely be the warmest day, 
as southwesterly breezes push H850 temps to near 15C along the 
Illinois border.

Generally light northerly winds will then be the rule for the
remainder of the period, working against the bright early March 
sun to hold readings near normal. Confidence is high that any 
potential southern-stream waves will be kept south of the region 
courtesy the flow around persistent troughiness across the 
Northeast/eastern Canada. Temperatures for most locations will 
range from lows near 30F to afternoon maxs in the mid 40s to 
around 50F...except for Wednesday afternoon when highs are
forecast to reach the mid to upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
Issued at 247 AM EST Tue Mar 2 2021

Dry weather is expected this weekend. the ECMWF shows strong ridging 
in place across the the central Plains...resulting in NW flow aloft 
and lee side subsidence spilling across the Ohio valley. 
Furthermore...ensemble cluster heights agree to strong ridging 
and above normal heights across Indiana and the Great Lakes 
through the period. 

Strong Surface high pressure is expected to slowly push east of 
Indiana by Saturday...and warmer southerly winds around the high 
are expected to influence our weather this weekend. This will 
result above normal temperatures along with a taste of spring 
warmth.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 021200Z Tafs/...

Issued at 551 AM EST Tue Mar 2 2021

IMPACTS: VFR Conditions are expected this Taf period.

DISCUSSION: Strong high pressure in place across Indiana and Ohio
will provide dry weather and cloud-free skies this taf period.
Time heights and forecast soundings show a dry column. Winds will
gradually become southwesterly by Wednesday morning.

CONFIDENCE: High confidence for VFR conditions.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AGM
NEAR TERM...AGM/JAS
SHORT TERM...AGM
LONG TERM....Puma
AVIATION...JP