268 
FXUS63 KIND 020235
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
935 PM EST Mon Mar 1 2021

.UPDATE...
The SHORT TERM and AVIATION Sections have been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 229 PM EST Mon Mar 1 2021

High pressure is expected to hold over the area for the balance of
the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday Night/...
Issued at 935 PM EST Mon Mar 1 2021

Just a few leftover cu from the day from Indy to Lafayette and these 
should continue to diminish over the next hour or two. Expect clear 
and cold conditions overnight as high pressure spreads across the 
area. Nudged low temps down a degree or two based on current obs. 
Expect some locations across the northeast portion of the forecast 
area will slip into the upper teens later tonight. 

Zone and grid updates out. Afternoon discussion follows.

Generally quiet weather expected during this period, as heights 
rise in response to a developing long wave ridge over the Plains. 
At the surface, high pressure will slowly drift through the area.

A cutoff low, currently moving into west Texas, is progged by the 
models to stay well to the south of the local area, undercutting 
the developing ridge.

Low level thicknesses suggest the GFS MOS lows tonight may be a 
little on the cold side. Will nudge up the guidance numbers a few 
degrees. Otherwise, the guidance temperatures look reasonable.

&&

.LONG TERM /Tuesday Night through Monday/...
Issued at 229 PM EST Mon Mar 1 2021

Broad high pressure will be in place through the period with dry 
conditions expected.  In addition to the high pressure, dry air will 
be advecting in aloft which will lead to clear skies through 
Thursday before an upper level low pressure system passes to the 
south. This may lead to some increased cloudiness, but no other 
impacts are expected. 

A stronger ridge will begin to build across the Central United 
States this weekend which will lead to an amplified jet stream and 
more northwesterly flow aloft.  With this setup, any weak waves in 
the jet could bring periods of increased cloudiness or perhaps light 
precipitation to the area.  Although the upper level flow is 
northwesterly, surface flow will remain stagnant to slightly 
southerly which will keep temperatures at to slightly above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for 020300Z TAF Update/...
Issued at 935 PM EST Mon Mar 1 2021

Minor changes based on current obs. 00Z discussion follows.

IMPACTS: Occasional wind gusts should diminish quickly early this
evening. VFR conditions are expected throughout the forecast
period.

DISCUSSION: A quick moving cold front was sweeping across the
region early this evening but with little moisture present...a
subtle increase in cu and a shift to N/NW winds were the main
indicators of the frontal passage. The cu should diminish just
after sunset setting up mainly clear skies through Tuesday
evening as high pressure drifts across the Ohio Valley. Northerly
winds tonight will become light and variable prior to daybreak
Tuesday...then shift around to S/SW Tuesday afternoon on the back
side of the high. Winds will again increase to 10-15kts Tuesday
afternoon.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. 

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS/Ryan
LONG TERM....White 
AVIATION...Ryan