007 
FXUS63 KOAX 272112
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
312 PM CST Sat Feb 27 2021

...Updated Forecast Discussion and Hydrology Discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 PM CST Sat Feb 27 2021

We will see a chance of rain developing, especially in northeast
NE this evening, and that rain will likely change to snow along
the NE/SD border. And it's that area that could be in slight
deformation zone overnight with light snow diminishing to flurries
by daybreak Sunday. Model consensus indicates 1-2" possible for a
couple of counties, Knox and Cedar, and even a couple models hint
at possible slightly more in the 3-4" range along the SD border.
Thus will issue a winter weather advisory for Knox and Cedar
counties through 6 am Sunday morning. 

Farther south, as the inverted trough moves through the are this
evening, could see a isolated showers develop. There is just a
hint of some very limited mid level instability, with computed
850mb LI slightly negative during the evening. SPC keeps the
general thunder outlook south of the area, as does the calibrates
SPC HREF model. The SREF hints at a narrow corridor of thunder
probabilities, but overall, have removed the mention of any
thunder this evening. Where it rains, amounts will be light at
less than one tenth of an inch. 

After slightly cooler days Sunday and Monday with highs mostly in
the lower to mid 40s, (albeit still near normal), the remainder 
of the forecast Tuesday through Saturday looks warm and dry and 
very mild with highs mostly in the 50s, but a few low 60s here and
there as well.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1128 AM CST Sat Feb 27 2021

VFR conditions initially, but lowering clouds result in MVFR
conditions by 00-03z. There will also be a chance of showers by
21z-03z at KOFK, and 00-06Z KLNK/KOMA. There is also a 20% chance
of a rumble of thunder at KLNK/KOMA, but not confident enough to
include in the aviation forecast at this time. There is also a
small chance of measurable snow for northeast NE, but believe any
accumulation will remain north of KOFK at this time. 


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 247 PM CST Sat Feb 27 2021

The flood watch remains for the Platte and Elkhorn River basins
through Monday. We do have two ongoing ice jams and associated
flooding along the Platte River, the first near Schuyler, and the
second near Fremont. Flood warnings continue for those two
locations with no substantial changes or improvement noted.

River observers have reported that lower portions of both rivers 
were perhaps seeing some clearing out with more free flowing water
noticed. And that's good news to allow any additional ice breakup
coming downstream to hopefully continue to move through the 
system. We are continuing to seeing higher flows on the Platte
from North Bend downstream, so we know there is likely some ice
moving through the channels. We are also seeing stages drop at
Waterloo on the Elkhorn River, which confirms the visual
observations that ice was clearing out there, and likely making it
into the Platte River. 

Given the high uncertainty of if, or when any additional ice jams
could develop, we will continue the flood watch at this time. We 
did trim a couple of counties in the upper reaches of the Elkhorn 
River out of the flood watch since river observations there 
indicate the water seems to be flowing mostly OK, with plenty of 
room in the banks if something were to happen. And we'll continue
to monitor closely, in cooperation with river observers, NRDs, and
local Emergency Management to alert of any additional ice jams if
they develop. 

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Flood Watch through Monday morning for NEZ032-033-042>045-
     050>053-067.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST 
     Sunday for NEZ011-012.

IA...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DeWald
AVIATION...DeWald
HYDROLOGY...DeWald