704 
FXUS65 KFGZ 232133
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
233 PM MST Tue Feb 23 2021

.SYNOPSIS...A series of weather disturbances will move across 
northern Arizona over the coming days. The first will be from 
Wednesday into Thursday producing windy and cooler conditions 
along with a slight chance of snow near the Four Corners. A 
second disturbance will move in later on Saturday through early 
Monday providing another round of windy and cooler weather along 
with a better chance of showers.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Look for an unsettled weather pattern over the
coming week as a series of shortwave troughs move across the
southwest United States and Arizona. Periods of windy conditions,
cooler temperatures and a chance of showers are anticipated.

For tonight...Light winds and seasonable overnight temperatures 
under just a few high clouds are in store.

On Wednesday and Thursday...The first shortwave trough and 
associated cold front will move across northern Arizona. The
primary impact will be strengthening westerly winds ahead of the 
trough Wednesday afternoon with gusts in the 25-30 mph range. 
Winds will shift to a north to northeast direction Wednesday 
night into Thursday morning as the cold front moves across the 
area, remaining quite breezy. There is a chance for a few light 
snow showers over the Chuska Mountains/Defiance Plateau region 
Thursday morning but elsewhere it will remain dry. Behind the 
cold front, daytime temperatures on Thursday will be a good 10 
degrees colder in most areas.

For Friday...Another fair weather day is anticipated between
systems with mild daytime temperatures, light winds and just a few
clouds.

From Saturday into Monday...The forecast models are showing 
enough variation in solutions to make the weekend forecast for 
precipitation a little tricky. The main problem is that most 
solutions form a closed-low system over Arizona with a distinct 
area where precipitation is likely in close proximity to where no 
precipitation will be observed. The exact location of the low 
center will determine where this precipitation couplet is 
positioned. What is nearly certain is that it will be windy and 
cooler. The strongest winds will likely be from Saturday into 
Sunday with the coolest temperatures on Monday. At this time the 
confidence in the exact location and even occurrence of 
precipitation is quite low but a few inches of snow in the high 
country of northern Arizona will be possible. Stay tuned for 
further details. 

&&

.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...Look for VFR conditions over the 
next 24 hours. Expect light winds overnight, becoming southwest 
sustained from 10-20 knots with gusts from 20-30 knots after 18Z 
Wednesday. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...An approaching low pressure system will bring 
gusty west to southwest winds on Wednesday. Wednesday night, a 
passing cold front will cause winds to shift toward the north, and a 
few light snow showers could develop from the Mogollon Rim 
northward. Noticeably cooler temperatures with breezy northerly 
winds are forecast Thursday. 

Friday through Sunday...Dry weather, near average temperatures and 
lighter west to northwest winds are forecast Friday. Stronger 
southwest winds are expected to occur Saturday, ahead of a winter 
weather system that may bring some rain and snow to the area
Sunday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...McCollum
AVIATION...RR
FIRE WEATHER...RR


For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff