151 
FXUS63 KFGF 100034
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
634 PM CST Tue Feb 9 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 634 PM CST Tue Feb 9 2021

Still getting some lowered visibility across portions of
northwestern MN, so extended patchy blowing snow mention in that
area another hour or so. Temps already starting back down and wind
chills in the -30s to -20s across all but our far southern
counties. Will make only minor tweaks to temps and continue wind
chill headlines. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Wednesday night)
Issued at 300 PM CST Tue Feb 9 2021

Dangerous wind chills continue, with minimal impacts from 
drifting/blowing snow this afternoon. 

Stubborn large scale upper low remains in place over 
Manitoba/Ontario, keeping arctic air well entrenches across the 
Northern Plains/Upper Midwest. A jet streak rounding the base of 
this upper low led to a period of increasing BL winds and with 
daytime mixing gusts 25 to 35 mph were reported at times this 
afternoon. This led to suspended blowing snow across a lot of our 
CWA, but vis restrictions/surface impacts have been minimal. Patchy 
drifting snow has been more common than blowing snow, but along the 
International border (especially in MN) vis has briefly been reduced 
to near 1 mile at times around the Lake of the Woods region. Winds 
are already stating to decrease as the jet streak/BL wind maxima 
transitions out of our area, and weaker flow (and surfaces winds) 
will be in place this evening/overnight. Breezy winds may redevelop 
again during the day Wednesday (not as strong BL flow though as 
today). 

Afternoon temperatures have managed to sneak to near or just above 
zero today in the southern Red River Valley, but with the stronger 
winds wind chill values have remained within the -25 to -30 range, 
with -35 to -45 being reporting across our north. Consensus of 
guidance (with very little spread in fact) is for lows tonight and 
Wednesday night to drop to the teens to low 20s below zero, with 
highs Wed generally in the single digits below. Wind chill values 
will still align with current advisory/warning products through 
these periods (-25 to -50 south to north). 

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 PM CST Tue Feb 9 2021

Impactful frigid temperatures and dangerous wind chills are 
anticipated through at least Saturday.

The stalled upper low in MB/ON will start to meander closer the 
international border of ND/MN around Thu/Fri before slowly breaking 
east late this weekend. This slow movement over the region will 
continue to feed arctic air into the Northern Plains and Upper 
Midwest through the remainder of the work week. A reinforcing pocket 
of frigid air will move over the region Thu/Fri/Sat with 850 mb 
progged to be in the -30 to -35C range. This air mass an an arctic 
high pressure stronger then 1040 mb means we could see temps bottom 
out into the -30s F during several nights/morning Thu-Sun, 
especially in typical cold spots outside of the Valley. This will 
also contribute to the very likely chance (greater than 90%) of 
subzero temperatures throughout the day through at least Saturday. 
Any breeze that develops will contribute to dangerous wind chills as 
cold as -50 F. With such prolonged, potentially dangerous cold, it 
is advisable to limit time spent outside, dress in warm layers while 
limiting exposed skin, keep a winter survival kit in the car if 
traveling, and look after pets. It isn't until Sunday-Monday where 
the chance for temperatures finally breaking out of zero develop. 

Should temps stay below zero at Grand Forks or Fargo ND through 
Sunday, this would be a top 10 cold spell for consecutive days below 
zero at 8 days (tied for 9th and 10th place, respectively). 

Regarding precipitation chances, a subtle perturbation is progged to 
move through the base of the upper low out of the northern High 
Plains and into the Central Plains. Some light snow may graze the 
area around Thursday with very light QPF signals showing up in 
ensembles. With such cold temps in place, wouldn't be surprised if a 
few tenths of an inch of snow develops given high snow ratios. Best 
chance for light snow resides for locations south of I-94. Another 
shortwave trough is expected to eject out of the Central Rockies 
into the Central Plains this weekend. While the majority of forcing 
is expected to bypass the area to the south, some light snow may 
again skirt southern counties.

The upper pattern becomes more progressive into early next week as 
the upper low exits east. This will bring "warming" temperatures 
back into the area along with the potential for periodic light snow 
chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 532 PM CST Tue Feb 9 2021

Winds will diminish this evening, with reduced visibility due to
blowing snow already decreasing. Some MVFR ceilings still hanging
around KBJI and KTVF, but will decrease in the next few hours.
Most airports will have VFR conditions for the rest of the period,
but KBJI could see some lower VFR or MVFR tomorrow afternoon. Kept
ceilings around 3500 for now. Winds will pick up again a bit out
of the west tomorrow, but not quite as much gustiness as today. 


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST Sunday for NDZ038-039-049-052-
     053.

     Wind Chill Warning until noon CST Sunday for NDZ006>008-014>016-
     024-026>030-054.

MN...Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST Sunday for MNZ003-024-027>032-
     040.

     Wind Chill Warning until noon CST Sunday for MNZ001-002-004>009-
     013>017-022-023.

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...DJR
LONG TERM...CJ
AVIATION...JR