001 
FXUS62 KFFC 091827 AAA
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
127 PM EST Tue Feb 9 2021

...Updated for near-term trends and 18Z Aviation Area Forecast 
Discussion...

.UPDATE...
Previously updated forecast to reflect near-term radar trends and
decreasing precip today. Did have some convection this morning
over south GA that has since moved away from the area. Skies
finally clearing over ATL metro and north GA with clearing coming
later over middle GA. Pattern favorable for fog, possibly dense
fog, early Wed morning after midnight. Updated forecast grids to
reflect this. 

SNELSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 651 AM EST Tue Feb 9 2021/ 

SHORT TERM /Today through Wednesday/...

Light rain will move across the southern regions of the CWA today as 
a weak impulse in a generally zonal upper level flow moves through 
the area. Some morning drizzle may be possible across the Atlanta 
metro region, but most of the precip is expected to move across 
south and central Georgia moving out by Tuesday afternoon.

Come Wednesday, westerly flow will generally prevail with another 
stronger upper level impulse possible. More widespread precip is 
possible, but heaviest rain is again expected to be across central 
Georgia. A few rumbles of thunder is likely.

Temperatures today and tomorrow will be around 5 to 10 degrees above 
normal with highs in the mid to upper 60s. Equally as impressive 
with be the overnight lows that are running around 15 degrees above 
normal with lows in the mid to upper 50s on Wednesday night. 

Vaughn

LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Monday/...

No big changes in the overall pattern for the long term period.
The forecast area remains in a broad west to southwest upper 
flow. The models are in fairly good agreement about the general
pattern...but timing of the individual waves remains the main
issue. Wednesday night through early Friday is still on track to
be a significant rain event as the first short wave crosses the
area. Likely or greater pops still look reasonable with isolated
thunderstorms possible. Temperatures look to remain too warm for
any mixed precipitation during this time frame. Pops lingering
into Sunday ahead of the next wave could bring an opportunity for
some wintry precipitation mainly north Saturday night into early
Sunday. Some colder air works its way into GA behind a surface
front over the weekend. The coldest night looks like Sunday night
and this may be a dry period between waves. Precipitation develops
again early Monday as low pressure forms in the northern Gulf.
This could bring another chance of wintry precipitation to north 
GA...however models are less certain on this development. 

41

AVIATION...
12Z Update...
Clouds are gradually pushing into the ATL metro sites now and cigs 
will gradually be decreasing through the overnight hours down to IFR 
conditions. There are a few models that have LIFR conditions with 
OVC004 by 10Z but a majority of the models maintain IFR conditions 
until 15Z when the transition back to MVFR begins. SSE winds will 
become calm this morning before becoming westerly by 18Z. Given the 
weak nature of the winds, the time of the change has been difficult 
to pin down. 

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Medium to Low confidence on cigs and wind direction timing.
High confidence on all other elements.

Vaughn

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
MVFR cigs should improve by 19-20Z to VFR if they haven't already
this afternoon, with slower improvement at middle GA airports.
Favorable pattern LIFR fog/stratus after 06Z Wed at most locations
with slow improvement to MVFR after 15Z. Sfc winds light and
variable or calm thru 15Z as well with SE winds 4-8kts after. 

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update... 
Low to medium confidence on LIFR cig/vsby likelihood and timing.
High confidence on all other elements.

SNELSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          65  44  62  50 /   5   5  20  20 
Atlanta         64  45  62  51 /   5  10  20  30 
Blairsville     60  40  60  46 /   5   5  10  40 
Cartersville    65  42  64  49 /   5   5  10  40 
Columbus        68  53  68  57 /  70  20  30  30 
Gainesville     63  43  61  49 /   5   5  10  30 
Macon           68  52  68  55 /  30  20  40  30 
Rome            66  43  67  51 /   0   5  10  40 
Peachtree City  66  47  64  52 /   5  10  20  30 
Vidalia         66  56  67  58 /  60  20  60  40 

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...SNELSON