343 
FXUS63 KMPX 062359
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
559 PM CST Sat Feb 6 2021

.UPDATED for 00z Aviation Discussion... 
Issued at 537 PM CST Sat Feb 6 2021

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 251 PM CST Sat Feb 6 2021

Broad longwave troughing will span the length of the CONUS through
the short term as a disturbance tracks to our south this afternoon.
At the surface, high pressure continues to build into the Midwest
underneath subsidence aloft. Temperatures have stalled at or below
zero this afternoon with help from a broken low level cloud deck that
has developed. Northwesterly winds gusting to 20kts are expected to
slow overnight, which combined with clearing skies should allow
temperatures to plummet into the -10s F below zero. Cold wind chills
of -20 to -35F below zero will continue through Sunday AM. A few
locations could see wind chills drop below -35F overnight but we do
not expect these to become widespread or persistent. 

High pressure will be centered over the CWA on Sunday with another
disturbance expected to pass to our south. Cloud cover will
overspread the region, which will keep highs below zero for Sunday.
Light and variable winds mean wind chills should not be an issue
Sunday afternoon or night. Lows dip back into the -10s below zero
Sunday night as lingering cloud cover limits radiational cooling. 

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 251 PM CST Sat Feb 6 2021

Main concern for the long term is the persistent cold spell with
another potential colder snap for the end of the work week. 

Broad longwave troughing is expected to remain centered across the
northern CONUS through most of the forecast period as embedded short
waves move through the main flow. Cold temperatures stick around
through the long term with the warmest highs of the week in the
single digits above zero. Wind chills look to generally be within the
20s to 30s below zero beginning Tuesday morning and continuing
through Saturday. With this cold air also comes a period of dry
weather as the main storm track remains suppressed to our south. 

Model guidance agrees with little to no QPF through Wednesday night
and begin to diverge after. The 12Z ECMWF advertises the potential
for widespread light snow on Thursday but remains an outlier among
guidance. A few EPS ensemble members do support this solution so we
will watch how guidance trends mid-week. 

Speaking of trends, the massive upper level PV Anomaly for the mid to
late week period over Central Canada drops another lobe of colder air
into the upper Midwest. This will reinforce another round of well
below normal temperatures just in time for next weekend. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 537 PM CST Sat Feb 6 2021

Cloud streets sliding from northwest to southeast with MVFR cigs will
still be affecting MKT at the start with light snow showers possible,
but should dissipate early this evening. Otherwise VFR conditions
throughout at all terminals. Northwest winds will continue throughout
but slacken to around 5 kts overnight. Clouds start to return
from southwest to northeast during the day tomorrow.

KMSP...
VFR conditions. Northwest winds throughout. High clouds return in the
morning and lower to a broken ceiling late in the afternoon as a
disturbance passes to the south.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

MON...MVFR possible. Wind N 5kts. 
TUE...VFR. Wind W 5-10kts. 
WED...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST Sunday for Anoka-Benton-Blue 
     Earth-Brown-Carver-Chippewa-Chisago-Dakota-Faribault-Freeborn-
     Goodhue-Hennepin-Isanti-Kanabec-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Le 
     Sueur-Martin-McLeod-Meeker-Mille Lacs-Nicollet-Ramsey-Redwood-
     Renville-Rice-Scott-Sherburne-Sibley-Steele-Waseca-Washington-
     Watonwan-Wright-Yellow Medicine.

     Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST Tuesday for Douglas-Morrison-
     Pope-Stearns-Stevens-Swift-Todd.

WI...Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST Sunday for Barron-Chippewa-Dunn-
     Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-Polk-Rusk-St. Croix.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CEO
SHORT TERM...BPH
LONG TERM...BPH
AVIATION...CEO