362 
FXUS64 KLZK 061055 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated for Aviation
National Weather Service Little Rock AR 
450 AM CST Sat Feb 6 2021

.AVIATION...

There will be lots of clouds over Arkansas this morning, but with 
VFR conditions. As the day progresses, areas of rain will increase, 
and clouds will lower with fog in places. Conditions will become 
MVFR/IFR. Late this afternoon into this evening, some snow is 
possible in about the northern two to three rows of counties. 
Precipitation will end tonight, with VFR conditions returning in the 
southwest. Low clouds/MVFR conditions will continue elsewhere. Winds 
will be east/southeast at 6 to 12 mph today, shifting to the 
north/northeast tonight. (46)

&& 

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Sunday Night

A cold front was poised just to the north of Arkansas this 
morning. A storm system in the Plains will track along the front, 
and will spread precipitation into Arkansas today. Precipitation 
will increase from the south and west this morning, and across the
rest of the region this afternoon/evening.

Mainly rain is in the forecast today given well above freezing 
temperatures in most areas. The highest elevations of the Ozark 
Mountains and a couple of peaks in the Ouachitas may have some snow, 
but that is about it.

Heading into this evening, the system will drag the front into the 
region as passes through, and Arctic high pressure will begin 
settling into Arkansas from the north. As it turns colder toward 
the Missouri border, there will probably be enough moisture for 
more widespread light snow in the northern two to three rows of 
counties. Locations that get snow will end up with nothing to a 
dusting on the ground, with up to an inch in the higher 
elevations. Some snowflakes may mix with rain in central sections,
but with no accumulation.

All precipitation will come to an end by midnight. The sky will 
remain partly to mostly cloudy, and temperatures will drop below 
freezing in most of the state. The exception will be the southeast 
where readings will stay a few degrees above freezing.

Cold air will remain in place on Sunday, with dry conditions and 
below average temperatures in the forecast. This will be a glancing 
blow, with Arctic high pressure relocating to the east Sunday night, 
and return flow keeping temperatures near seasonal.

&&

.LONG TERM...Monday Through Friday

The long term fcst continues to remain complex and uncertain 
regarding anomalously cold temps and wintry wx. The PD begins w/ a 
broad longwave H500 troughing pattern over the CONUS...notably, 
quasi-zonal flow will be prevalent over the Cont Divide, w/ lee 
cyclogenesis present over the TX panhandle. A region of strong sfc 
high pressure lkly driving an outbreak of Arctic air over the Nrn 
Great Plains will be located over the Upper Midwest. As such, a 
strong baroclinic zone is anticipated to be draped over the Cntrl 
US, extending back up towards the N/W, pooling up over the High 
Plains and bordering against the terrain of the Rocky Mtns. 

Mon and Tues...the aforementioned sfc low pressure is anticipated to 
track Ewrd along the Red River Valley. WAA will be prevalent over 
the fcst area ahead of the advancing sfc low, developing a low-level 
warm nose across the state. The presence of this low-level zone of > 
0C temps will lead to a more complex precip type fcst late in the 
fcst PD. At this point, the latest suite of long range guidance 
has...again...depicted differing solns regarding the evolution and 
progression of the Arctic frnt. Current thinking is still siding w/ 
the cold frnt sagging S/wrd through the state on Tues, w/ colder air 
filtering into the Nrn half of the state, and Srn AR potentially 
staying more mild initially. Chc PoPs will lkly accompany the FROPA 
over much of the state on Tues, w/ modest frozen precip chances 
remaining over far Nrn AR given a much cooler vertical temp profile 
will be present behind the frnt. 

Over the next few days, it appears the frnt will stall over the 
AR/LA/MS border region, keeping minimal Chc PoPs in the fcst area, 
wherein some frozen precip may be seen over the Nrn half of the 
state, lkly consisting of a freezing rain mix along the transition 
zone over Cntrl AR, and a sleet/ice mix in far Nrn AR.  

Thurs through the end of the PD...an H500 wave is progged to pivot 
S/wrd out of Canada, leading to an amplifying upper-lvl pattern and 
producing troughing over much of the Cntrl US. The movement of this 
feature will aid in driving lingering sfc high pressure over the Nrn 
Plains into the Cntrl and Srn US, supplying a shot of Arctic air 
into the fcst area. As this feature evolves, attention will turn to 
hazardous temperatures across the state, particularly over Nrn AR w/ 
sub-zero to single digit wind chill values possible near the end of 
the PD. W/ this in mind, as the fcst continues to evolve and 
confidence increases, those w/o proper heating should make 
preparations, and pets/animals who reside outside should be checked 
frequently or brought into shelter if possible. 

To summarize, the long term remains a complicated fcst, and 
confidence is holding steady in regard to a cold snap of anomalously 
and even dangerously cold air intruding into the fcst area late in 
the PD. Confidence remains lower on the potential for hazardous 
wintry wx through the latter half of the term, but the possibility 
is still non-zero. The grainy details on magnitude and coverage of 
any hazardous winter wx will continue to be monitored...Stay 
tuned... 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     46  26  38  28 /  80  60   0   0 
Camden AR         52  33  51  33 /  70  10   0   0 
Harrison AR       41  21  38  28 /  90  40   0   0 
Hot Springs AR    50  30  46  31 /  80  10   0   0 
Little Rock   AR  50  30  43  32 /  80  30   0   0 
Monticello AR     50  35  48  36 /  70  30   0   0 
Mount Ida AR      49  29  47  33 /  80  10   0   0 
Mountain Home AR  43  21  37  27 /  90  50   0   0 
Newport AR        48  27  36  29 /  80  60   0   0 
Pine Bluff AR     51  32  45  33 /  70  30   0   0 
Russellville AR   49  27  43  31 /  90  30   0   0 
Searcy AR         49  27  40  28 /  80  50   0   0 
Stuttgart AR      52  32  43  33 /  70  50   0   0 
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...46 / Long Term...GREEN