732 
FXHW60 PHFO 060635
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
835 PM HST Fri Feb 5 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Light and variable winds will prevail through the weekend, leading 
to mostly clear and cool nights and mornings. Our airmass will 
become more stable. Expect a mostly dry weather pattern, with 
increased upslope clouds and showers possible in the afternoons. 
Another front will move through the islands late Monday and 
Tuesday, and could bring another round of widespread rainfall. 
Cool and dry air will follow the front around midweek. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Light northwest flow prevails this evening, driven by the 
gradient between a high to our northwest and a persistent surface 
low to the north. Cool conditions will linger into Monday, with 
light northwest winds becoming light and variable Saturday morning
as a surface ridge moves over the islands. An upper trough will 
steadily move east away from the area over the next 24 hours, and 
mid-level temperatures will warm significantly. This will lead to 
decreasing showers moving ashore along the north and west facing 
coasts and slopes, but will likely allow afternoon sea breezes to 
drive interior cloud formation, with a few showers. Nighttime land
breezes will likely translate to mostly clear nights and 
mornings. Rainfall chances will be limited with the dry air mass 
and increasing stability.

A cold front will move through the islands early next week, with 
another upper trough expected to bring very cold air aloft, 
decreasing stability. As this system approaches on Monday, winds 
will become south to southwest and increase to moderate strength.
Despite some model differences, another round of widespread 
rainfall appears possible Monday through Tuesday as this feature 
moves through. Localized flooding and a few thunderstorms could 
accompany the front. More settled northwest flow is expected mid- 
week, with light and variable winds potentially following. 

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail through the weekend as the dry and 
cool airmass remains in place. Light northwest low-level flow 
will lead to overnight land breezes and afternoon sea breezes. 

&&

.MARINE...
A trough of low pressure east of the state will maintain a
chance for Big Island northeast offshore water thunderstorms this
evening. Low pressure north of the state, along with weak high 
pressure building in from the west, will be the impetus for light 
northwest to west winds across local Hawaiian waters through 
Saturday afternoon. The weak ridge moving into the islands from 
the west will create light and variable winds. The low to the 
north will move northeast and allow a cold front northwest of the 
chain to pass across the islands Monday into Tuesday. Monday's 
winds will become moderate southwest ahead of the boundary. 
Moderate to fresh northwest to north winds will occur in the 
front's wake Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning.

The ongoing high, moderate period northwest swells will slowly 
subside this weekend. An overlapping northwest swell Saturday will 
keep surf heights elevated through the weekend. Advisory level 
surf can be expected along most north and west-facing shores
through Saturday night with surf heights falling below advisory 
criteria Sunday. The Small Craft Advisory for seas will be in 
effect through Saturday afternoon as significant seas fall with 
the diminishing northwest swells. 

A new northwest swell will build into the western Hawaiian waters
Monday and push surf back up to advisory heights Tuesday. This 
northwest swell may peak surf at high end advisory from Tuesday 
night through Wednesday morning. This swell will then subside late
Wednesday through Thursday. No other significant swells are 
expected through the forecast period.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST Saturday for Niihau-Kauai 
Windward-Kauai Leeward-Waianae Coast-Oahu North Shore-Oahu 
Koolau-Molokai-Maui Windward West-Maui Central Valley-Windward 
Haleakala-Kona-Kohala.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Saturday for Kauai Northwest 
Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Channel-
Oahu Windward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Maui County Windward Waters-
Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Windward Waters.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Powell
AVIATION...Gibbs
MARINE...Blood