792 
FXUS62 KFFC 231819
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
119 PM EST Sat Jan 23 2021



.UPDATE...

18z Aviation update below.

Baker

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 918 AM EST Sat Jan 23 2021/ 

UPDATE...

Some minor temp/dewpt adjustments per near term ob trends largely
on track. Will need to keep an eye on some lower dewpt mixing in
parts of north GA and any increased fire danger concerns but for
now looks too borderline in RH criteria and slightly too high
fuels to issue any statement. Should be a nice pleasant Saturday
with mostly clear skies and above normal max temps on tap 
otherwise. Previous discussion follows...

Baker

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 623 AM EST Sat Jan 23 2021/ 

SHORT TERM /Today through Sunday/...

Cold front continues to push south of the area as high pressure 
bridges across the Ohio valley but a wide expanse to affect the 
local area. Low level moisture has been slow to scour out across far 
southeastern sections and consequently, the arrival of the cooler 
air has resulted in dense fog conditions. Although areal extent is 
limited, fog is dense enough to warrant a dense fog advisory through 
13Z.

Although overall it will be a slightly cooler airmass, full sun 
today will allow for temperatures to rise into the upper 50s to 
lower 60s. Went with the lower MAV/MET blend for the dewpoints and 
we therefore get close to Fire Danger for the northern tier. It 
appears we will not quite make the duration criteria and fuel 
moisture will likewise prevent issuance.

Continued westerly flow aloft will allow for quick transitions from 
dry to wet across the area. Mid level clouds will be on the increase 
initially on Sunday but lowering bases will eventually allow for 
light rain to develop. High end chance pops will be advertised for 
NW portions but this may need to be increased to at least likely 
with subsequent forecasts should model trends continue.

Deese

LONG TERM /Sunday Night through Friday/...

A warm front will be lifting northward across the forecast area at 
the start of the forecast period Sunday night as the parent low 
tracks northeastward across the Southern Plains. PoPs will thus be 
maximized across north Georgia and particularly far north Georgia 
Sunday night into the day Monday in the vicinity of the warm front. 
Temperatures Monday will run well above normal as the entire area 
will be situated in the warm sector. 

The cold front will be dragged into the state Monday night as the 
surface low lifts into the Midwest. While the upper shortwave will 
bypass well north of the area on Monday, there will be sufficient 
(though marginal) instability and shear ahead of the front for some 
thunderstorm threat. At this point, weak instability should limit an 
appreciable severe risk, though an isolated risk for a strong 
thunderstorm is possible. The cold front will then clear at least 
north Georgia on Tuesday before stalling, though temperatures 
Tuesday will remain well above normal. 

The drier conditions across north Georgia will be short lived, 
however, as the next shortwave trough induces the development of a 
surface low to the west on Wednesday. Rain will thus again 
overspread the area Wednesday and taper off from west to east 
Wednesday night as the system pushes eastward fairly quickly. High 
pressure will then return thereafter through the end of the period, 
and temperatures will drop closer to seasonal norms.

RW

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
VFR conditions thru period with initial mostly clear skies. Some
alto cigs build in overnight into tomorrow morning, then some cigs
3500-5000 ft in from the west during tomorrow daytime. Any lower
MVFR cigs and increased SHRA chances remain outside the fcst
period mainly starting tomorrow night. Winds on east/ESE side 4-8
kts thru period.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
High on all elements.

Baker

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          59  31  55  43 /   0   0  20  60 
Atlanta         59  37  57  46 /   0   0  30  50 
Blairsville     55  28  49  40 /   0   0  50  90 
Cartersville    59  34  55  43 /   0   0  40  80 
Columbus        62  42  60  51 /   0   5  20  20 
Gainesville     56  34  51  42 /   0   0  40  80 
Macon           61  36  61  49 /   0   5  20  10 
Rome            56  32  54  46 /   0   0  40  80 
Peachtree City  60  35  57  46 /   0   0  20  40 
Vidalia         61  40  64  51 /   0   5  10   5 

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Deese/Baker
LONG TERM....RW 
AVIATION...Baker