188 
FXUS64 KMOB 201913 AAA
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
113 PM CST Wed Jan 20 2021

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Thursday/...An upper level ridge will 
remain rooted in place over the central Gulf of Mexico nosing up to 
the southern gulf coast states through Thursday. This promotes 
strong zonal flow aloft over our area while a weak shortwave races
eastward across the southern Plains on Thursday. At the surface, 
a cold front over the northern Gulf of Mexico this morning, with
high pressure to the north of the front quickly translating east 
across the forecast area tonight into Thursday morning, shifting 
east of the area by Thursday evening. This shift will promote a 
change to southerly low level winds by Thursday evening, and 
increasing moisture content with PWATs increasing to 1.2" to 1.5".
With the incoming shortwave to our west and our area being 
located within the right entrance region of the upper level jet, 
we should begin to see rain chances begin to increase from the
northwest a little by early Thursday and then increase more 
notably into the early part of the short term period (Thursday 
evening). These higher rain chances will likely continue into 
early Friday as well, but this will be discussed in more detail in
the Short Term Discussion below. 

The approaching shortwave will lift the frontal boundary 
currently out over the Gulf back inland over the southeastern 
states, providing a low level focus for showers to develop by late
Thursday. This boundary will likely become quasi-stationary 
across central portions of MS and AL going into the short term 
period and it will be near this boundary that some locally heavy 
rainfall will be possible, and WPC has highlighted an area with a 
Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall in that area for Thursday and 
Thursday night, with the bulk of the rain coming Thursday night 
into Friday, or during the short term period. For now it appears 
that rainfall amounts between 1-2" with locally higher totals will
be possible, but most of that will be in the short term period 
beginning Thursday night and will be discussed there. The overall 
flooding threat is will generally be very limited considering the 
dry antecedent conditions. 

Lows tonight are expected to be in the upper 40s and lower 50s. 
Highs on Thursday in the low to mid 60s for most areas, possibly 
a few upper 60s just inland from the coast over portions of the 
western Florida panhandle. /12

&&

.AVIATION...
20/18Z issuance...Mainly VFR conditions across the area this
afternoon, and even through tonight and into early Thursday for
the most part. Some mid level clouds (mainly around 5-7 KFT) will
be increasing late today through this evening, but remain above
critical levels through 18z Thursday. Light northeasterly surface
winds this afternoon becoming more light and variable overnight
(except possibly light southeasterly near the coast). Generally
light and variable or light southerly winds expected on Thursday.
/12

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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