095 
FXUS64 KTSA 192338
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
538 PM CST Tue Jan 19 2021

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions will prevail through early Wednesday afternoon
with considerable mid and high level cloudiness. Light rain may
affect KMLC and KFSM by late Wednesday afternoon, and ceilings may
become MVFR at times at those sites as well.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 222 PM CST Tue Jan 19 2021/ 

DISCUSSION...
Cold front has settled well south in TX, with a chilly and dry
night expected as surface riding builds across the forecast area.
Southerly low-level winds/decent moisture advection (PWATs around
1") will result in some shower activity Wednesday into Wednesday 
evening mainly south of I-40. Breezy south/southwest winds across
northeast OK will lead to worsening fire spread conditions as
afternoon RH values dip below 40%.

Thursday is looking dry and mild, with shower activity returning 
Thursday night into Friday as the Baja upper low ejects east and 
minors out in the confluent upper flow over the southern Plains. 
Main focus for rain during this period will again be generally 
along and south of I-40.

A west coast upper low will develop over the weekend, with the
system ejecting into the Rockies/Plains by early next week.
Moisture return ahead of this system looks a bit more impressive
than the earlier systems, with some 50s surface dewpoints likely 
advecting into at least the southeast parts of the forecast area.
Highest PoPs will stretch from southeast OK into western AR 
Sunday into Monday, with the system exiting by Monday night. 
Forecast instability is also supportive of a few thunderstorms. 

Stayed fairly close to NBM temp guidance through the next 7 days.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....05