000 
FXUS63 KFGF 172343
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
543 PM CST Sun Jan 17 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 245 PM CST Sun Jan 17 2021

Think the biggest impact in the next few days will be at the start
of the long term forecast, the Tuesday morning commute. That is
discussed in the long term section below.

North-northwest winds are well established now at all the
observations points in this FA. Activity on the Mayville radar 
has been on the decrease, but surface observations still show
flurries around the area. May extend their mention into the
evening, as the clouds are holding tough. The parade of weak waves
will continue in the northwest flow, the next one should begin to
move through late tonight, continuing into Monday. At this point,
this one appears to possibly graze the far western FA, so it 
should not be very impactful. The next wave arrives late Monday 
night, bringing a little light snow to areas west of the Red River
Valley before sunrise on Tuesday. Neither of these waves are 
accompanied by strong winds, which will minimize their impact.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 245 PM CST Sun Jan 17 2021

Overview...

A few chances for minimal impact precipitation will be possible 
throughout the week as a few quick moving systems affect the area on 
Tuesday, Wednesday into Thursday, and Saturday respectively. 
Otherwise, temperature trends will be sporadic as we warm up to well 
above normal through Wednesday ahead of precipitation and then drop 
back down toward normal by the weekend. 

Ensemble guidance is in good agreement with the upper level pattern 
for the long term period. Northwesterly flow is expected to stick 
around through the late week until an upper level trough looks to 
dig in over the western CONUS and shift our flow pattern to a more 
zonal direction. The pattern is indicative of colder (near normal 
temperatures) air sticking around and at least increased potential 
for precipitation for the extended period, which coincides well with 
the extended CPC outlooks as well. 

Tuesday...

A transient shortwave is expected to ride the northwesterly flow 
aloft into the region by Tuesday morning. The weak and quick moving 
nature of this system should only result in light accumulations of 
an inch or less, but the timing of snowfall onset could introduce 
some Tuesday morning commute travel impacts. Cloudy skies will 
likely stick around on Tuesday following the passage of the system, 
but a westerly surface wind will work to advect temperatures in the 
20s to areas west of the Red River Valley, while temperatures east 
of the Valley are expected to remain in the teens. 

Wednesday & Thursday...

The slight warming trend from Tuesday should continue into Wednesday 
as a mid level ridge will briefly position itself over the northern 
Plains. This warm bubble aloft and a west-southwesterly wind will 
aid in bumping high temperatures on Wednesday into the 30s and low 
40s prior to the next shortwave passing through. Ensemble consensus 
is currently indicating that precipitation impacts will likely be 
confined to the Lake of the Woods area, although some light wintry 
precipitation cannot be ruled for other areas north of highway 2. 
The primary impact from this system will be the introduction of 
colder air and a return to normal temperatures to the forecast area. 
Thursday will likely see high temperatures occurring just after 
midnight as the aforementioned system moves through. Temperatures 
are then expected to fall throughout the day as a north-
northwesterly wind will be advecting in cold air.

Friday & Saturday...

Ensemble guidance at this point is showing a good bit of variance 
and as a result, confidence in any one solution is low. That being 
said, near normal temperatures are likely to stick around moving 
into the weekend. The biggest discrepancies lie with the next low 
pressure system, currently expected for next Saturday. The exact 
track of the low will determine what, if any, precipitation impacts 
may affect the area. Current consensus has some potential for light 
snow for areas south of highway 2, but confidence in this solution 
is again, decidedly low. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 543 PM CST Sun Jan 17 2021

Fairly large area of MVFR ceilings with a few spots down to IFR
and some isolated flurries. This will continue for much of the
evening. Some sucker holes are not out of the question and some
guidance bounces between MVFR and VFR, but not confident enough 
to include any meaningful improvement in the TAFs until tomorrow. 
Think there could be some improvement to VFR (or MVFR at KBJI) by 
the end of the period. Winds will remain mostly from the northwest
near 10 kts. 

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
$$

SHORT TERM...Godon
LONG TERM...Godon/Rick
AVIATION...JR