AFOS product AFDJAX
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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDJAX
Product Timestamp: 2021-01-02 13:27 UTC

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587 
FXUS62 KJAX 021330 CCA
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion...correction
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 
827 AM EST Sat Jan 2 2021

.UPDATE...

Strong storm system was centered over the southern Plains this
morning. A band of showers and storms was maintained from our
interior SE GA counties southwestward over the eastern FL
panhandle and across much of the northern and central Gulf of 
Mexico...mainly parallel to the southwesterly flow aloft. 
Latest high-res guidance keeps this rain band in place over 
our westernmost counties through the day, gradually spreading
eastward late in the day and Tonight as the upper system 
approaches from the west. There may also be widely scattered
light showers ahead of this band, as currently seen on radar W of 
JAX...covering this potential with 10-20 POP given isolated
measurable amounts. Made some adjustments to hourly weather and
POP grids to account for the above. No other changes in update.

Main threat appears to be locally heavy rainfall over our western
counties in SE GA...could see 1-2 inch rainfalls with locally
heavier amounts where midday/afternoon heavier showers/t-storms 
occur. Could see gusty winds with stronger storms to develop,
but instability expected to be insufficient for a more substantial
severe weather threat.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 12Z Sunday]

Areas of IFR CIGs ongoing across much of NE FL early this morning.
Latest guidance suggests this will diminish during the
morning...leading to SCT-BKN 015-025 later in the morning into 
afternoon. Could see isolated light showers  KJAX/KSSI this 
morning, and elsewhere in the afternoon...but most of the time
will be dry. 

&&

.MARINE...

Southerly winds 10-15 kts expected through Tonight coastal waters... 
a little stronger offshore waters...ahead of stalled boundary to the 
west of the local waters. Winds shift to the west behind the front 
at similar speeds on Sunday then Northwest Sunday night, likely just 
below Small Craft Advisory headlines. As High pressure builds in 
West of the waters early next week expect the offshore flow 
generally in the 10-15 knot range to continue through Tuesday.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rips lingers along the NE FL
beaches with south flow and surf/breakers of 2-3 ft otherwise
expect low risk at SE GA beaches today and all beaches on Sunday
as offshore flow develops.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  72  54  62  37  59 / 100 100  10   0   0 
SSI  72  58  67  42  60 /  40  90  30   0   0 
JAX  78  61  70  41  63 /  20  80  40   0   0 
SGJ  78  63  70  45  63 /  10  60  60   0   0 
GNV  79  61  70  39  63 /  20  80  30   0   0 
OCF  81  61  70  42  65 /  10  80  40   0   0 

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&
649 
FXUS62 KJAX 021329 CCA
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion...correction
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 
827 AM EST Sat Jan 2 2021

.UPDATE...

Strong storm system was centered over the southern Plains this
morning. A band of showers and storms was maintained from our
interior SE GA counties southwestward over the eastern FL
panhandle and across much of the northern and central Gulf of 
Mexico...mainly parallel to the southwesterly flow aloft. 
Latest high-res guidance keeps this rain band in place over 
our westernmost counties through the day, gradually spreading
eastward late in the day and Tonight as the upper system 
approaches from the west. There may also be widely scattered
light showers ahead of this band, as currently seen on radar W of 
JAX...covering this potential with 10-20 POP given isolated
measurable amounts. Made some adjustments to hourly weather and
POP grids to account for the above. No other changes in update.

Main threat appears to be locally heavy rainfall over our western
counties in SE GA...could see 1-2 inch rainfalls with locally
heavier amounts where midday/afternoon heavier showers/t-storms 
occur. Could see gusty winds with stronger storms to develop,
but instability expected to be insufficient for a more substantial
severe weather threat.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 12Z Sunday]

Areas of IFR CIGs ongoing across much of NE FL early this morning.
Latest guidance suggests this will diminish during the
morning...leading to SCT-BKN 015-025 later in the morning into 
afternoon. Could see isolated light showers  KJAX/KSSI this 
morning, and elsewhere in the afternoon...but most of the time
will be dry. 

&&

.MARINE...

Southerly winds 10-15 kts expected through Tonight ahead of stalled 
boundary to the west of the local waters. Winds shift to the west 
behind the front at similar speeds on Sunday then Northwest Sunday 
night, likely just below Small Craft Advisory headlines. As High 
pressure builds in West of the waters early next week expect the 
offshore flow generally in the 10-15 knot range to continue through 
Tuesday.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rips lingers along the NE FL
beaches with south flow and surf/breakers of 2-3 ft otherwise
expect low risk at SE GA beaches today and all beaches on Sunday
as offshore flow develops.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  72  54  62  37  59 / 100 100  10   0   0 
SSI  72  58  67  42  60 /  40  90  30   0   0 
JAX  78  61  70  41  63 /  20  80  40   0   0 
SGJ  78  63  70  45  63 /  10  60  60   0   0 
GNV  79  61  70  39  63 /  20  80  30   0   0 
OCF  81  61  70  42  65 /  10  80  40   0   0 

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&