514 
FXUS64 KMAF 250808
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
208 AM CST Fri Dec 25 2020

.DISCUSSION...
Satellite shows a shrtwv trof INVOF SOCAL/SW AZ early this AM. Thru 
the day surface pressures will fall as shrtwv ridging amplifies 
ahead of said shrtwv trof. As such temps will warm back up today, 
however high temps will be mitigated some the presence of high 
clouds. Still highs will return to just above normal in most areas, 
except the mtns. As the shrtwv trof moves across Friday night mid 
clouds will move in and are likely to have virga (low-levels remain 
very dry). Lee troffing and low-level thermal ridging will occur Sat 
with mostly sunny skies and with more of a zonal mid-level component
Sun a noticeable warming trend will occur, by Sun high temps will
be about +15 above normal. A cold mid-level trof moving across 
the cntrl plains Sun will favor a brief backdoor cold front Mon? 
However the next mid-level trof will be approaching from the w and
there will be a window for low-level mstr to increase during the 
day Mon. The mid-level trof will pass Tue AM with precip potential
mostly confined to the far n-ne CWFA as the mid-upper level dry 
slot slams thru and the 3h jet is a little too far n. What seems 
more likely are dry gusty wests wind during the day with temps 
trending cooler, possibly even into Thur.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Extremely dry conditions continue areawide in a post-frontal 
environment, with poor to fair nocturnal recoveries at best. As 
such, RHs this afternoon will plummet to the single digits for most 
of the region, though light winds and increasing clouds today will 
mitigate elevated or critical fire weather conditions. A lee trough 
will develop Saturday, resulting in breezy westerly to southwesterly 
downsloping winds and warmer temperatures, with continued dry 
conditions and critical RHs expected areawide. The strongest winds 
Saturday will be found across the Guadalupe Mountains and Sacramento 
Foothills, where Elevated Conditions will be possible. Recovery will 
improve somewhat on Saturday night, with poor recoveries expected 
along and to the lee of the higher terrain and in the Big Bend, and 
fair to good elsewhere. Fire weather concerns generally look to be 
low Monday as moisture increases ahead of an approaching system, 
that may bring light rain showers to northern and eastern portions 
of the area Monday night and early Tuesday. However, rainfall 
amounts will be light, with breezy to windy conditions developing by 
Tuesday afternoon, yielding increasing Fire Weather concerns, 
especially if the boundary layer dries out faster than currently 
modeled. ERCs are reaching into the 70th-89th percentile for much of 
the area, and with little to no rain expected for the foreseeable 
future along with intermittent breezy to windy conditions, the 
drying trend will likely continue.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     65  34  68  38 /   0   0   0   0 
Carlsbad                       60  25  68  33 /   0   0   0   0 
Dryden                         65  36  70  39 /   0   0   0   0 
Fort Stockton                  66  37  72  42 /   0   0   0   0 
Guadalupe Pass                 53  36  58  39 /   0   0   0   0 
Hobbs                          60  27  66  34 /   0   0   0   0 
Marfa                          58  24  66  29 /   0   0   0   0 
Midland Intl Airport           63  34  67  37 /   0   0   0   0 
Odessa                         63  33  68  37 /   0   0   0   0 
Wink                           62  27  71  32 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$